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Regional employment impacts of Common Agricultural Policy measures in Eastern Germany: a difference-in-differences approach

机译：东德共同农业政策措施对地区就业的影响：差异方法

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摘要

Politicians and farm lobbyists frequently use the argument that agricultural policy is necessary to safeguard jobs in agriculture. We explore whether this is true by conducting an econometric ex post evaluation of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the three East German States Brandenburg, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt. Whereas previous studies have employed descriptive statistics or qualitative methods and have looked at single policy instruments in isolation, we apply a difference-in-differences estimator to analyze the employment effects of the entire portfolio of CAP measures simultaneously. Based on panel data at the county level, we find that investment aids and transfers to less-favored areas had a zero marginal employment effect. We present evidence that full decoupling of direct payments in 2005 led to labor shedding, as it made transfer payments independent of factor allocation. Spending on modern technologies in processing and marketing and measures aimed at the development of rural areas led to job losses in agriculture. Agrienvironmental measures, on the other hand, kept labor-intensive technologies in production or induced them. This analysis calls into question whether an expansion of existing second pillar measures is a reasonable way to use funds modulated away from the first pillar.
机译：政治家和农场说客经常使用这样的论点，即必须采取农业政策来保障农业工作。我们通过对三个东德州勃兰登堡州，萨克森州和萨克森-安哈尔特州的欧盟共同农业政策（CAP）进行计量经济学事后评估，探索这是否成立。以前的研究采用描述性统计或定性方法，并孤立地研究了单个政策工具，但我们采用了差异差异估算器来同时分析整个CAP措施组合的就业效果。根据县一级的面板数据，我们发现投资援助和转移到较不发达地区的边际就业效应为零。我们提供的证据表明，2005年直接支付的完全脱钩导致劳动力减少，因为这使转移支付与要素分配无关。加工和销售方面的现代技术支出以及旨在发展农村地区的措施导致农业失业。另一方面，农业环境措施将劳动密集型技术保留在生产中或诱使它们使用。这种分析令人质疑，扩大现有的第二支柱措施是否是使用从第一支柱调离后的资金的合理方式。

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