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Synoptic detection of the short-term atmospheric precursors prior to a major earthquake in the Middle East, North Saravan M 7.8 earthquake, SE Iran

机译:在中东发生严重地震之前对东北大气进行短期天气前兆探测,伊朗北部萨拉万7.8级地震

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At the present study, we applied a synoptic prospect to the analysis of the short-term atmospheric precursors that occurred prior to a major earthquake. The North Saravan M 7.8 earthquake on April 16, 2013 was the first major recorded earthquake in the Middle East for the past 40 years. We compiled the eight atmospheric variables during March, April, and May of 2013 by using NASA/Giovanni and NOAA/NCEP data. According to the anomaly detection of variables, we determined the sudden increasing anomalies for surface-specific humidity, surface-latent heat flux, and surface-wind velocity on April 8–9, of 2013, 6–7 days prior to the earthquake. After the O3 and NO2 anomalous records and long-term anomaly of pressure levels, we observed the abnormal cloud fractions generated due to a severe greenhouse effect and a violent low geopotential height. Based on satellite observations as obtained from MODIS and Meteosat data, we exposed the local-waved shape of low clouds and circular pattern of high clouds in the synoptic scale, respectively. We believed the greenhouse effect plays a main role in triggering the chain of increased anomalous atmospheric variations, ascending air turbulence, and abnormal cloud circulation 1 week prior to the M 7.8 earthquake. Over the results, we propose to use the continuous monitoring of greenhouse and reactive gasses release, e.g., O3, CH4, NO2, SO2, etc. as the motive precursor of earthquake precursor’s chain, to detection of possible major earthquakes in the active fault region of the Makran subduction zone.
机译:在当前的研究中,我们将天气概要用于分析发生大地震之前的短期大气前兆。 2013年4月16日发生的北萨拉万7.8级地震是过去40年来中东地区的第一场重大地震。我们使用NASA / Giovanni和NOAA / NCEP数据汇总了2013年3月,4月和5月的八个大气变量。根据变量的异常检测,我们确定了地震前6-7天的2013年4月8日至9日,表面比湿度,表面潜热通量和表面风速突然增加。在O3和NO2异常记录以及长期的压力水平异常之后,我们观察到由于严重的温室效应和剧烈的低地势高度而产生的异常云量。根据从MODIS和Meteosat数据获得的卫星观测资料,我们分别在天气尺度上暴露了低云的局部波形状和高云的圆形图案。我们认为,温室效应在引发7.8级M地震前一周的异常大气变化增加,空气湍流上升以及云团异常循环中起主要作用。根据结果​​,我们建议使用连续监测温室气体和反应性气体的释放,例如O3,CH4,NO2,SO2等作为地震前兆链的动力前兆,以探测活动断层区域中可能发生的大地震。 Makran俯冲带。

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