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Evaluation of the performance of ADMS in predicting the dispersion of sulfur dioxide from a complex source in Southeast Asia: implications for health impact assessments

机译:评估ADMS预测东南亚复杂来源二氧化硫扩散的性能:对健康影响评估的意义

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This paper reports on the performance of Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System (ADMS) 4.2 in predicting peak and mean ambient sulfur dioxide concentrations at two sites adjacent to the Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate in Eastern Thailand, the centre of the country’s petrochemical industry. The model comprised 100 individual stacks and utilised four separate meteorological datasets from different points around the site. We show that model performance varies according to the location at which the meteorological data were obtained, with considerable differences in model outputs observed for meteorological stations that are relatively close to each other. The best performances were observed when there was co-location of the meteorological data and receptor. In such cases, acceptance criteria for the majority of performance parameters were satisfied across averaging periods ranging from 1 h to 7 days. We have also compared the results from this study with those obtained from a recent literature American Meteorological Society/United States Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) study for the same site and time period; the comparison indicates that AERMOD is likely to be similarly influenced by the choice of meteorological dataset. Using ADMS model simulations for all four meteorological datasets and a breakdown of the local population by electoral ward, we were able to estimate exposure over 1 h, 24 h and yearly averaging periods and compare these to air quality standards and guidelines published by Thailand, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the European Union (EU). The results of this analysis showed that despite the large variations in overall model performance, the impact of choice of meteorological dataset on prediction of compliance with the standards and guidelines is relatively small: the WHO 24-h guideline of 7.5 ppb (100th percentile) was predicted to be exceeded in all of the wards for all meteorological datasets, whilst compliance with Thai and EU standards was predicted for at least 86 % of the population, with relatively little variation between the different meteorological datasets.
机译:本文报告了大气扩散建模系统(ADMS)4.2在预测泰国石化行业中心泰国东部Map Ta Phut工业区附近的两个地点的峰值和平均二氧化硫浓度方面的性能。该模型包括100个单独的堆栈,并利用了站点周围不同点的四个独立的气象数据集。我们显示,模型性能会根据获取气象数据的位置而有所不同,对于彼此相对接近的气象站,观察到的模型输出存在相当大的差异。当气象数据和接收器并存时,观察到最佳性能。在这种情况下,大多数性能参数的验收标准在1小时到7天的平均时间内都得到了满足。我们还将本研究的结果与美国气象学会/美国环境保护局监管模型(AERMOD)在同一地点和同一时期的最新研究结果进行了比较。比较结果表明,气象数据集的选择也可能对AERMOD产生类似的影响。使用所有四个气象数据集的ADMS模型模拟以及选举区对当地人口的细分,我们能够估算1小时,24小时和每年平均时间的暴露量,并将其与泰国发布的空气质量标准和指南进行比较。世界卫生组织(WHO)和欧洲联盟(EU)。分析结果表明,尽管总体模型性能差异很大,但气象数据集的选择对预测标准和准则的遵从性的影响相对较小:WHO的24小时准则7.5 ppb(百分位数)预计所有病房的所有病房都将超过该病房,而至少有86%的人口预计符合泰国和欧盟标准,不同的气象数据组之间的变化相对较小。

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