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Climate trends in indices for temperature and precipitation across New York State, 1948–2008

机译：1948–2008年纽约州温度和降水指数中的气候趋势

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摘要

New York State (NYS) is a geographically diverse area susceptible to climate change, but trends in climate extreme indicators have not been extensively studied. Our objectives are to describe temporal and spatial trends in various extreme indicators and their sensitivity to climate change and to demonstrate geographic differences in indicator trends in NYS. We analyzed data from the US Historical Climatology Network for NYS from 1948 to 2008. We assessed trends in 15 temperature and 11 precipitation indicators using linear regression with bootstrapping in SAS and RClimDex software. The indicators showing the most substantial change per decade were frost days (−0.97 days per decade) and diurnal temperature (−0.11°C). For precipitation indicators, the number of heavy precipitation days (+0.99 days), consecutive wet days (+ 0.42 days), the total wet day precipitation (+30.19 mm), and the simple daily intensity index (+0.18 mm/day) showed the most change per decade. The most representative indicators that showed significant trends for more than half of the stations were number of cool nights, diurnal temperature, and number of frost days and increase in total wet day precipitation and simple daily intensity index for precipitation. The most sensitive regions for changes in extreme indicators were the eastern and Great Lakes regions of NYS. In light of these consistent temporal trends of warming and increasing precipitation in NYS with large geographic variation, the indicators that have been identified should be further evaluated and assessed for their health impact. Geographical differences in climate trends may be of use in informing policy and resource allocation for climate change adaptation.
机译：纽约州（NYS）是一个易受气候变化影响的地理区域，但是尚未对气候极端指标的趋势进行广泛研究。我们的目标是描述各种极端指标的时空趋势及其对气候变化的敏感性，并证明纽约州指标趋势的地理差异。我们分析了1948年至2008年来自纽约州美国历史气候学网络的数据。我们使用SAS和RClimDex软件中的自举线性回归对15个温度和11个降水指标的趋势进行了评估。显示每十年最显着变化的指标是霜冻天（每十年−0.97天）和昼夜温度（−0.11°C）。对于降水指标，显示了重降水天数（+0.99天），连续湿日（+ 0.42天），总湿天降水（+30.19 mm）和简单日强度指数（+0.18 mm /天）每十年变化最大。在超过一半的观测站中，表现出显着趋势的最具代表性的指标是凉爽的夜晚数量，昼夜温度和霜冻天的数量，以及总湿日降水量的增加和简单的每日降水强度指数。极端指标变化最敏感的地区是纽约州的东部和大湖地区。鉴于地理区域差异较大的纽约州变暖和降水增加的持续时间趋势，应进一步评估和评估已确定的指标对健康的影响。气候趋势的地域差异可能有助于告知适应气候变化的政策和资源分配。

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  • 来源
    《Air quality, atmosphere & health》 |2013年第1期|247-257|共11页
  • 作者

    T. Z. Insaf; S. Lin; S. C. Sheridan;

  • 作者单位

    1.New York State Department of Health Bureau of Environmental and Occupational Epidemiology Center for Environmental Health Flanigan Square Room 200 547 River Street Troy NY 12180 USA 2.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health State University of New York at Albany One University Place Rensselaer NY 12144 USA;

    1.New York State Department of Health Bureau of Environmental and Occupational Epidemiology Center for Environmental Health Flanigan Square Room 200 547 River Street Troy NY 12180 USA 2.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health State University of New York at Albany One University Place Rensselaer NY 12144 USA;

    3.Department of Geography Kent State University Kent OH 44242 USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Climate change; Extremes; Temperature; Precipitation; Trend indicators;

    机译：气候变化;极端气候;温度;降水;趋势指标;

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