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Utilization of Holt's Forecasting Model for Zakat Collection in Indonesia

机译：Holt预测模型在印度尼西亚Zakat收集中的应用

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摘要

The practice of zakat is gaining popularity in Indonesia. This development is attributed to the strong role of the government in consistently developing zakat infrastructure and the increased awareness of people to practice zakat. Despite this success, a mechanism for predicting future zakat collection has not yet been developed. This study applies Holt's exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast zakat in Indonesia using zakat collection from 2009 to 2014. Results show that Holt's exponential smoothing is best fits the zakat time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting zakat. Holt's exponential smoothing is comparable to the ARIMA model given its small deviations in mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the software used to implement Holt's exponential smoothing is similar to that used in ARIMA models. These similarities show that these models can accurately forecast future trends to prepare proper strategies and plan the future of the organization. These models can also be used to develop a plan for managing charity based on the number of recorded mustahiq.
机译：zakat的做法在印度尼西亚越来越流行。这种发展归因于政府在不断发展zakat基础设施方面的强大作用以及人们实践zakat的意识增强。尽管取得了成功，但仍未开发出预测将来的天akat收集的机制。本研究使用Holt指数平滑和自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型，使用2009年至2014年的zakat集合预测印度尼西亚的zakat。结果表明，Holt的指数平滑最适合zakat时间序列数据，因此适合于预测扎卡特Holt的指数平滑度与ARIMA模型相当，这是因为它的平均绝对百分比误差和均方误差很小。此外，用于实现Holt指数平滑的软件与ARIMA模型中使用的软件相似。这些相似之处表明，这些模型可以准确地预测未来趋势，以准备适当的策略并计划组织的未来。这些模型还可用于根据已记录的鼬数量来制定管理慈善计划。

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  • 来源
    《American journal of applied sciences》 |2016年第12期|1342-1346|共5页
  • 作者

    Akbarizan; Muhammad Marizal; M. Soleh; Hertina; Mohammad Abdi. A.; Rado Yendra; Ahmad Fudholi;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Law and Syari 'ah, Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim (UIN Suska), 28293, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia;

    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim (UIN Suska), 28293, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia;

    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim (UIN Suska), 28293, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia;

    Department of Law and Syari 'ah, Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim (UIN Suska), 28293, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia;

    Department of Law and Syari 'ah, Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim (UIN Suska), 28293, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia;

    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim (UIN Suska), 28293, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia;

    Solar Energy Research Institute, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    holt's exponential smoothing; forecasting; zakat; trend;

    机译：霍尔特的指数平滑;预测;扎卡特趋势;

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