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首页> 外文期刊>American journal of applied sciences >NEW CAR DEMAND MODELING AND FORECASTING USING BASS DIFFUSION MODEL
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NEW CAR DEMAND MODELING AND FORECASTING USING BASS DIFFUSION MODEL

机译：低音扩散模型的新汽车需求建模与预测

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Forecasting model of new product demand has been developed and applied to forecast new vehicle demand in Malaysia. Since the publication of the Bass model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theory has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. The building of Bass diffusion model for forecasting new product within the Malaysian society is presented in this study. The proposed model represents the spread level of new Proton car among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new car. With the limited amount of data available for the new car, a robust Bass model was developed to forecast the sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation shows that the proposed diffusion model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of new Proton car. The proposed diffusion model is shown to forecast more effectively and accurately even with insufficient previous data on the new product.
机译：已经开发了新产品需求的预测模型，并将其应用于马来西亚的新车需求预测。自1969年Bass模型发布以来，新的扩散理论的创新已引起市场营销学者，运筹学学者和数学家的大量研究。本研究介绍了在马来西亚社会中预测新产品的Bass扩散模型的建立。提出的模型代表了新质子汽车在社会给定集合中的传播水平，这是自引入新汽车以来经过的简单数学函数。由于新车可用的数据量有限，因此开发了强大的Bass模型来预测销量。设计了所提出的扩散模型的程序，并估计了参数。应用所提出的模型和数值计算结果表明，所提出的扩散模型对于预测新型质子汽车的需求是鲁棒且有效的。结果表明，即使在新产品上没有足够的数据时，所提出的扩散模型也可以更有效，更准确地预测。

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