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Global Coffee: Forecasts Maintained As Market Remains Well-Supplied

机译：全球咖啡：由于市场供不应求，预测维持不变

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1. We are maintaining our price forecasts out to 2023 and anticipate prices averaging USc100/lb in 2019, remaining broadly stable thereafter. 2. Beyond 2019 to 2023, we anticipate a largely stable global market, with moderate surpluses, and continued weakness for the Brazilian real and Colombian peso. 3. This will keep prices anchored over that time. In line with the view from our previous coffee price forecasts, ICE have hovered around multi-year support at USc100/lb, and continues to trade at levels last seen in 2005 prior to 2019. However, with our forecasts for continued weakness in the Brazilian real, only limited disruption so far to the Brazilian crop during its important flowering phase (from September-December 2019), and technical indicators suggesting room for additional downward momentum, coffee prices will continue to struggle breaking above resistance at USc110/lb over the coming weeks. Moreover, speculative sentiment remains at low, but not extreme levels, meaning prices have the potential to head even lower. We are maintaining our coffee price forecasts out to 2023, with prices averaging moderately lower y-o-y to 2019 and 2020 and roughly sideways thereafter. Prices will average USc95/lb in 2020, as the global market turns from a 2.3mn bag deficit in 2019/20 (the harvest for which began in May 2019) to a slight surplus in 2020/21. More specifically, Brazilian production decreased during its completed 2019/20 down-year season in line with its biennial cycle, using USDA and ICO conventions (see table below). This will be added to record combined production in Colombia and Vietnam. Beyond the 2019 calendar year, we anticipate that prices will average around spot levels in 2019 as global production growth slows in line with the 19/20 down-year in the Brazilian cycle. However, subdued global demand growth will keep price increases relatively limited and prices will remain weak even with the market turning to deficit. Moreover, we continue to forecast the Brazilian real to depreciate over the coming years, which will keep coffee prices anchored. Our price forecasts out to 2023 are below consensus (as compiled by Bloomberg) and the price trajectory implied by the futures curve (which is currently in contango).
机译：1.我们维持对2023年的价格预测，并预计2019年平均价格为USc100 / lb，此后大致保持稳定。 2.在2019年至2023年之后，我们预计全球市场将基本保持稳定，有适度的过剩，而巴西雷亚尔和哥伦比亚比索将持续疲软。 3.这将使价格在这段时间内保持稳定。与我们之前的咖啡价格预测一致，ICE在多年支撑位附近徘徊在USc100 / lb，并且继续以2005年之前的最新水平交易（2019年之前）。但是，由于我们对巴西的持续疲软做出了预测。到目前为止，在重要的开花期（自2019年9月至12月）到目前为止，对巴西农作物的破坏只有有限的实际影响，并且技术指标表明仍有进一步下降的动力，因此咖啡价格将在未来一段时间继续努力突破110美元/磅的阻力位周。此外，投机情绪仍处于较低水平，但不是极端水平，这意味着价格有可能进一步走低。我们一直维持到2023年的咖啡价格预测，到2019年和2020年的咖啡平均价格同比将有所下降，此后则大致持平。价格将在2020年平均达到USc95 / lb，因为全球市场将从2019/20年度230万袋的赤字（从2019年5月开始收获）变为2020/21略有过剩。更具体地讲，根据USDA和ICO公约，巴西在其完整的2019/20淡季期间按照其双年度周期减少了产量（见下表）。这将被添加到哥伦比亚和越南的创纪录总产量中。在2019日历年之后，我们预计价格将在2019年均价徘徊在现货水平，因为全球产量增速放缓，与巴西周期的19/20下降趋势一致。但是，全球需求增长疲弱将使价格上涨保持相对有限，即使市场转向赤字，价格也将保持疲软。此外，我们继续预测巴西雷亚尔在未来几年会贬值，这将使咖啡价格稳定下来。我们对2023年的价格预测低于市场共识（彭博社汇编）和期货曲线所隐含的价格走势（目前处于contango状态）。

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    《Americas food and drink insight》 |2019年第10期|8-12|共5页
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