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Evaluating the conditional convergence hypothesis in the post-1989 globalization period

机译：评估1989年全球化期间条件收敛假设

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This paper finds that conditional convergence in per capita incomes, as a robust empirical regularity across countries, is absent in the post-1989 globalization era. The results show that conditional convergence is subject to some initial, returns-adjusted level of education, implying that it has become more challenging for developing countries to industrialize via technology catch-up from abroad. The lack of conditional convergence, together with the increasing importance of education, complements another strand of literature that provides evidence of growth-reducing structural change, a growing technology gap due to the skill-intensive nature of manufacturing, and their link to the premature deindustrialization phenomenon observed in many developing countries since 1990. To draw an explicit link between the lack of conditional convergence in the post-1989 period and the literature on premature deindustrialization, the analysis augments a Barro-type regression with the employment shares of manufacturing, agriculture and services. The results show that raising the employment share of manufacturing relative to agriculture and, especially, services, is the most effective way to induce conditional convergence and generate faster growth in per capita income. One implication of the lack of conditional convergence is that the growth accelerations observed in many developing economies since the late-1990s may not be sustainable.
机译：本文发现，在1989年全球化时代，人均收入作为各国的强劲实证规律，在全球化时代缺席。结果表明，条件融合受到一些初步，返回调整后的教育水平，这意味着对发展中国家通过国外追赶的发展中国家对发展中国家变得更加挑战。缺乏有条件的融合，以及越来越重要的教育，补充了另一条文献，提供了减少增长结构变化的证据，这是由于制造业技能密集的性质，以及他们与过早的去工业化的联系自1990年以来在许多发展中国家观察到的现象。为了在1989年后期缺乏条件融合与早产的文献之间的有条件融合之间的明确联系，分析增加了与制造业，农业和农业和的雇佣份额服务。结果表明，提高制造业相对于农业的就业份额，特别是服务，是诱导条件收敛性的最有效的方法，并在人均收入增长更快地增长。缺乏条件融合的一种含义是自20世纪90年代末期以来，许多发展中经济体观察到的增长加速可能无法可持续。

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