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An error correction model of induced innovation in UK agriculture

机译：英国农业诱导创新的错误校正模型

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摘要

Cointegration techniques are applied to a model of induced innovation based on the two-stage Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function. This approach results in direct tests of the inducement hypothesis, which are applied to agricultural data for the United Kingdom from 1953 to 2000. The time series properties of the variables are checked, cointegration is established and an Error Correction Model (ECM) constructed, which attempts to separate factor substitution from technological change. Finally, the ECM formulation is subjected to causality tests, which show that the factor price ratio for chemicals and land is Granger-prior to the factor-saving bias of technological change. However, long-run relative prices are not causally prior to the machinery/labour ratio. This results from perturbations in the user cost of machinery, caused by oil price shocks. Thus, the Induced Innovation Hypothesis (IIH) may explain long-run transformations like the mechanical and fertilizer revolutions that dominated the twentieth century, but not reflect short-run price volatility.
机译：将协整技术应用于基于两阶段不变弹性替代（CES）生产函数的诱导创新模型。这种方法导致对诱导假设的直接检验，并将其应用于1953年至2000年英国的农业数据。检查了变量的时间序列属性，建立了协整关系，并构建了纠错模型（ECM），试图将要素替代与技术变革区分开。最后，对ECM公式进行了因果检验，结果表明，化学品和土地的要素价格比是Granger优先于技术变革的要素节省偏差。但是，长期相对价格并不是因劳力比而因果关系的。这是由石油价格冲击引起的机器用户成本波动引起的。因此，“诱导创新假说”（IIH）可以解释长期的变化，例如主导20世纪的机械和肥料革命，但不能反映短期的价格波动。

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  • 来源
    《Applied Economics》 |2011年第27期|p.4081-4094|共14页
  • 作者

    Jenifer Piesse; David Schimmelpfennig; Colin Thirtle;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Management, King's College London, 150 Stamford Street, London SE1 9HN, UK,Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch 7602, South Africa;

    United States Department of Agriculture, Production Economics and Technology, Economic Research Service, 1800 M Street, NW, Room 4179, Washington, DC 20036-5831, USA;

    Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch 7602, South Africa,Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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