Animal spirits: the effect of economic expectations on economic output

Joseph Bafumi

首页> 外文期刊>Applied Economics >Animal spirits: the effect of economic expectations on economic output

【24h】

Animal spirits: the effect of economic expectations on economic output

机译：动物精神：经济预期对经济产出的影响

获取原文

获取原文并翻译 | 示例

掌桥外文数据库（机构版） >>

开具论文收录证明 >>

文献代查 >>

页面导航

摘要
著录项
相似文献
相关主题

摘要

The public is characterized as able forecasters of future economic performance. They engage in rational expectations. Empirical evidence exists to bolster the claim. This article considers the possibility that the public does more than predict economic output. They may engage in a self-fulfilling prophecy where belief about the future economy translates into personal financial behaviour (e.g., consumption and investment) that actually drives economic performance. After controlling for rational expectations with elite forecasts, leading indicators and past economic performance, it is shown that between 5% and one-third of the variance in economic output can be explained by prospective economic sentiment. This result has broad implications for electoral behaviour research.

机译：公众的特征是可以预测未来的经济表现。他们从事理性的期望。存在经验证据来支持该主张。本文考虑了公众所做的不只是预测经济产出的可能性。他们可能会做出自我实现的预言，将对未来经济的信念转化为实际推动经济绩效的个人理财行为（例如，消费和投资）。在用精明的预测，领先的指标和过去的经济表现控制理性预期之后，表明经济产出差异的5％至三分之一可以用预期的经济情绪来解释。这一结果对选举行为研究具有广泛的意义。

著录项

来源
《Applied Economics》 |2011年第27期|p.3573-3589|共17页
作者
Joseph Bafumi;
展开▼
作者单位

Department of Government, Dartmouth College, 6108 Silsby Hall, Hanover, NH 03755, USA;

展开▼
收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词

相似文献

外文文献
中文文献
专利

1. Animal spirits in financial economics: A review of deviations from economic rationality [J] . Raj Aggarwal International Review of Financial Analysis . 2014,第mara期

机译：金融经济学中的动物精神：对经济理性偏离的评论
2. On animal spirits and economic decisions: Value-at-Risk and Value-within-Reach as measures of risk and return [J] . Domingo Castelo Joaquin The quarterly review of economics and finance . 2016,第May期

机译：关于动物精神和经济决策：作为风险和回报的量度的风险价值和实现中的价值
3. What are animal spirits? Rationality and explanation in economics [J] . Shaun P. Hargreaves Heapa* Journal of Economic Methodology . 2011,第3期

机译：什么是动物精神？经济学的理性与解释
4. Integration of medical humanistic spirits and economic principles under market economy - medical humanism under market economy [C] . Na Wang, Jinguo Wang International Conference on Economic and Business Management . 2018

机译：市场经济市场经济中医学人体精神与经济原则的整合 - 在市场经济下的医学人文主义
5. Urbanization, agriculture, and economic output: Essays in economic geography [D] . Motamed, Mesbah J. 2009

机译：城镇化，农业与经济产出：经济地理论文
6. Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery [O] . Peter Klimek, Sebastian Poledna, Stefan Thurner -1

机译：从投入产出敏感性对经济弹性进行量化以改善对经济增长和复苏的预测
7. The Impact of Government Spending on the Duration and the Intensity of Economic Crises: Latin America 1900-2000 Abstract: We study the role of fiscal expenditure during episodes of economic crises using one century data from 20 Latin American countries. We use output drops as way of indicating the irruption of economic crises and we are able to document episodes of large output drops and large duration of economic crises, which are characteristics that vary considerably among countries. We study the duration of crises by means of count data and hazard models while we study the intensity of the crisis by means of growth regressions. Our main findings suggest that fiscal expenditure has low power to shorten economic crises but it might act as an effective instrument to smooth output-drops during crises. [O] . Rodrigo Cerda. 100

机译：政府支出对经济危机持续时间和强度的影响：拉丁美洲1900-2000摘要：我们利用来自20个拉丁美洲国家的一个世纪的数据，研究了经济危机事件中财政支出的作用。我们使用产出下降作为表明经济危机中断的方式，我们能够记录大量产出下降和大量经济危机的情况，这些特征在各国之间差异很大。我们通过计数数据和危险模型研究危机的持续时间，同时我们通过增长回归来研究危机的强度。我们的主要研究结果表明，财政支出在缩短经济危机方面的能力较弱，但它可能成为在危机期间平稳减产的有效工具。

Animal spirits: the effect of economic expectations on economic output

摘要

著录项

相似文献

相关主题

期刊订阅