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首页> 外文期刊>Applied Mathematical Modelling >What are causes of cash flow bullwhip effect in centralized and decentralized supply chains?
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What are causes of cash flow bullwhip effect in centralized and decentralized supply chains?

机译：集中式和分散式供应链中现金流牛鞭效应的原因是什么？

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摘要

Bullwhip effect in supply chain is a phenomenon which can emerge in both inventory levels and replenishment orders. Bullwhip effect causes variations in cash conversion cycle (CCC) across cash flow of supply chain. As a result, it can lead to inefficiencies such as cash flow bullwhip (CFB). Due to negative impact of CFB on cash flow of supply chain, it can lead to a decrease in efficiency of supply chain management (SCM). That is why supply chain modeling is a proper start point for effective management and control of the CFB. This paper aims to analyze concurrent impact of causes of inventory bullwhip effect and effect of their interactions on CFB based on generalized OUT policy from aspect of CCC variance. To this end, first we develop system dynamics structure of beer distribution game as simulation model which includes multi-stage supply chain under both centralized and decentralized supply chains. Then, in order to develop CFB function, we design experiments in developed simulation model using response surface methodology (RSM). Results demonstrate that if each chain member uses generalized OUT policy as replenishment model, there still exists CFB in both chains and CFB largely stems from rationing and shortage gaming in both centralized and decentralized supply chain. In addition, when information on ordering parameters are not shared among members, parameters of downstream stage (i.e. retailer) are more important than parameters of upstream stage (i.e. manufacturer) in reducing CFB function.
机译：供应链中的牛鞭效应是一种可能同时出现在库存水平和补货订单中的现象。牛鞭效应导致整个供应链现金流量的现金转换周期（CCC）发生变化。结果，它可能导致效率低下，例如现金流牛鞭（CFB）。由于CFB对供应链现金流的负面影响，可能导致供应链管理（SCM）效率下降。因此，供应链建模是有效管理和控制CFB的适当起点。本文旨在从CCC方差的角度分析基于广义OUT策略的库存牛鞭效应原因的同时影响及其相互作用对CFB的影响。为此，我们首先开发啤酒分销游戏的系统动力学结构作为仿真模型，该模型包括集中式和分散式供应链下的多级供应链。然后，为了开发CFB功能，我们使用响应面方法（RSM）在开发的仿真模型中设计实验。结果表明，如果每个链成员都使用广义的OUT策略作为补货模型，则两个链中仍然存在CFB，并且CFB很大程度上源于集中式和分散式供应链中的配给和短缺博弈。另外，当成员之间没有共享关于订购参数的信息时，在降低CFB功能方面，下游阶段（即零售商）的参数比上游阶段（即制造商）的参数更重要。

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