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首页> 外文期刊>Aquatic Sciences >Forecast of lake volume and salt concentration in Lake Chapala, Mexico
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Forecast of lake volume and salt concentration in Lake Chapala, Mexico

机译：墨西哥查帕拉湖的湖泊体积和盐浓度预测

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摘要

Using historical hydrological information and water quality records, an early warning system was developed to forecast short- and long-term trends in water level changes and volume-dependent major ion concentrations for Lake Chapala, Mexico. The developed tool allows one to forecast yearly minimum lake-water volumes with a 90% probability and less than +/-5% error. The long-term behavior of lake volume and its trend towards a new equilibrium was estimated by a second empirical approach, where water storage variations were calculated by estimating changes in total lake evaporation losses due to variations in lake area. Available historical water quality records were analyzed and, by applying subsequent statistical data filtration, volume and time dependent trends in major ion concentrations were established. Mass and charge balances were applied to complete the data-sets with concentrations of ions that are not measured during ordinary monitoring. Concerning water quality regulations, minimum lake volumes were proposed to guarantee the intactness of this important drinking water resource. Despite the uncertainties of these approaches, the early warning system presented provides a useful tool for short and long-term prediction of lake water storage and quality that may support management decisions related to the whole watershed.
机译：利用历史水文信息和水质记录，开发了一个预警系统来预测墨西哥查帕拉湖的水位变化和与体积有关的主要离子浓度的短期和长期趋势。开发的工具允许人们以90％的概率和小于+/- 5％的误差预测每年的最小湖水量。湖泊体积的长期行为及其向新平衡的趋势是通过第二种经验方法估算的，该方法通过估算因湖面积变化而导致的总湖面蒸发损失的变化来计算蓄水量。分析了可用的历史水质记录，并通过应用后续的统计数据过滤，建立了主要离子浓度与体积和时间相关的趋势。应用质量和​​电荷平衡来完成数据集，其中包含常规监测期间未测量的离子浓度。关于水质法规，为保证这一重要饮用水资源的完整性，提出了最小的湖泊容积。尽管这些方法存在不确定性，但所提出的预警系统为短期和长期预测湖泊蓄水量和水质提供了有用的工具，可以支持与整个流域有关的管理决策。

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