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Searching for new paradigms at BIS

机译：在BIS寻找新的范例

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To central bankers, the implementation of the Basel II Capital Accord was planned as a stimulant to improve banks' risk management practices, as well as to formulate appropriate, risk-sensitive capital levels for the global banking system. Now, after building up very high expectations and investing enormous intellectual capital in the reformulation of Basel II, many bankers and regulators, not to mention bank investors, have fallen disappointed at the unexpected deficiencies in banking capital, especially for complex global financial insti- tutions, that have been exposed by the recent market turmoil. Even the improved risk management systems of these large banks -as stimulated by Basel II -have become orphaned by their erstwhile supporters. Consider that, for the past dozen years or so, the most popular risk paradigm has been VaR, or, value at risk. Central bankers seem to have concluded that banks that relied on VaR tended to operate in ways which exaggerated the banking systems' natural "procyclicality." That is, banks using VaR made too many loans into the credit boom economy, resulting in an overstimulation of the business cycle.
机译：对于中央银行家，计划实施《巴塞尔新资本协议》，以刺激改善银行的风险管理实践，并为全球银行系统制定适当的，对风险敏感的资本水平。现在，在建立了很高的期望并在巴塞尔新资本协议的重新制定中投入了大量的智力资本之后，许多银行家和监管机构对银行资本的意外不足感到失望，尤其是对于复杂的全球金融机构而言，更不用说银行投资者了，最近的市场动荡已经暴露出来。受巴塞尔新协议（Basel II）的刺激，甚至这些大型银行的改进的风险管理系统也被其昔日的支持者孤立了。考虑一下，在过去大约十二年中，最流行的风险范例是VaR或风险价值。中央银行家似乎已经得出结论，依靠VaR的银行往往以夸大银行体系自然的“顺周期性”的方式运作。也就是说，使用VaR的银行向信贷繁荣经济提供了过多的贷款，从而导致商业周期的过度刺激。

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