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首页> 外文期刊>ABA Banking Journal >Why not stop at 4.5%?
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Why not stop at 4.5%?

机译：为什么不停在4.5％？

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摘要

We expect the fed to pause in its interest rate hikes at 4.5% early this year. Economic growth began to slow significantly in the fourth quarter of last year, and inflation will be moderating. Under these conditions—and recognizing that recent Fed interest rate increases have not yet had their major impact—why would the Federal Open Market Committee want to push the funds rate higher than 4.5% ? Moreover, although outgoing Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan had little practical use for the concept of a "neutral" fed funds rate, there is some evidence that incoming Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke does. And the circumstantial evidence is that he would view a 4.5% funds raters neutral, if not restrictive.
机译：我们预计美联储将于今年年初暂停加息4.5％。去年第四季度经济增长开始显着放缓，通货膨胀率将有所缓和。在这种情况下，并且认识到美联储最近的加息尚未产生重大影响，为什么联邦公开市场委员会想将基金利率推高至4.5％以上？此外，尽管即将离任的美联储主席格林斯潘对“中性”联邦基金利率的概念几乎没有实际用途，但有证据表明，即将离任的美联储主席本·伯南克确实如此。间接证据表明，他认为4.5％的资金评级师是中立的，即使不是限制性的。

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