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Will the US remain the real leader of human space exploration? A comparative assessment of space exploration policies

机译：美国会继续是人类太空探索的真正领导者吗？太空探索政策的比较评估

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摘要

Human space exploration is at a turning point which should find its outcome during the coming decade: Shuttle is being retired, ISS will be exploited up to 2020 minimum. Today the US exploration plans are sucked down into political battles, Europe and Japan are nearly nowhere, Russia's plans are hazy, China's ambitions are clear and implemented, and new actors such as India are raising their profile. In this uncertain environment, the question might be asked: who will be the leaders of human space exploration in 10-15 years from now?The assumption of the paper is that some key enabling factors are essential for a country to play a substantial role in human space exploration:1. There should be some long term political stability or continuity 2. The domain should be high in the political agenda of the country's decision makers 3. The global budget environment of the country should be positive 4. Space should not be too much competed by other budget "catchers"The paper will propose a tentative comparison of the main space faring countries plans, ambitions and likely positioning, for human space exploration. Starting from the today situation and recent past evolutions, we will try to establish future trends for these key factors, and through that to identify which countries might be the most dynamically engaged in human space exploration.
机译：太空探索正处于一个转折点，未来十年应会取得成果：航天飞机正在退役，国际空间站的利用将持续到2020年。如今，美国的勘探计划陷入了政治斗争，欧洲和日本几乎无处可寻，俄罗斯的计划朦胧，中国的野心明确并得到落实，印度等新的参与者正在提高自己的形象。在这种不确定的环境中，可能会问一个问题：从现在开始，谁将在10-15年内成为人类太空探索的领导者？本文的假设是，一些关键的促成因素对于一个国家在全球范围内发挥实质性作用至关重要。太空探索：1。应该具有一定的长期政治稳定性或连续性。2.该领域应在该国决策者的政治议程中占据较高的位置。3.该国的全球预算环境应是积极的。4.空间不应与其他预算过多竞争“麦田守望者”本文将对主要的航天国家对人类太空探索的计划，抱负和可能的定位进行初步比较。从今天的情况和最近的过去演变开始，我们将尝试为这些关键因素建立未来趋势，并以此确定哪些国家可能是最活跃地参与人类空间探索的国家。

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  • 来源
    《Acta astronautica》 |2012年第junaajula期|p.1-14|共14页
  • 作者

    Max Grimard;

  • 作者单位

    Astrium, 6 me Laurent Pichat, 75016 Paris, France;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    human exploration; space policies; space powers;

    机译：人类探索;空间政策;太空大国;

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