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Decadal opportunities for space architects

机译：空间建筑师的十年机会

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A significant challenge for the new field of space architecture is the dearth of project opportunities. Yet every year more young professionals express interest to enter the field. This paper derives projections that bound the number, type, and range of global development opportunities that may be reasonably expected over the next few decades for human space flight (HSF) systems so those interested in the field can benchmark their goals. Four categories of HSF activity are described: human Exploration of solar system bodies; human Servicing of space-based assets; large-scale development of space Resources; and Breakout of self-sustaining human societies into the solar system. A progressive sequence of capabilities for each category starts with its earliest feasible missions and leads toward its full expression. The four sequences are compared in scale, distance from Earth, and readiness. Scenarios hybridize the most synergistic features from the four sequences for comparison to status quo, government-funded HSF program plans. Finally qualitative, decadal, order-of-magnitude estimates are derived for system development needs, and hence opportunities for space architects. Government investment towards human planetary exploration is the weakest generator of space architecture work. Conversely, the strongest generator is a combination of three market drivers: (1) commercial passenger travel in low Earth orbit; (2) in parallel, government extension of HSF capability to GEO; both followed by (3) scale-up demonstration of end-to-end solar power satellites in GEO. The rich end of this scale affords space architecture opportunities which are more diverse, complex, large-scale, and sociologically challenging than traditional exploration vehicle cabins and habitats.
机译：空间建筑新领域面临的重大挑战是项目机会的匮乏。但是，每年都有更多的年轻专业人员表示有兴趣进入该领域。本文得出了一些预测，这些预测限制了在未来几十年中人类太空飞行（HSF）系统可以合理预期的全球发展机会的数量，类型和范围，因此对该领域感兴趣的人可以对其目标进行基准测试。描述了四类HSF活动：人类对太阳系物体的探索；人类对太阳系物体的探索。对天基资产的人为维修；大规模开发空间资源；自我维持的人类社会进入太阳系。每个类别的功能逐步递增，从其最早的可行任务开始，并逐步实现其完整表达。比较这四个序列的规模，与地球的距离和准备情况。方案将这四个序列中最协同的功能进行了混合，以便与政府资助的HSF计划计划的现状进行比较。最后，针对系统开发需求得出定性的，年代际的，数量级的估计，从而为空间设计师提供了机会。政府对人类行星探索的投资是最薄弱的太空建筑工作。相反，最强大的发电机是三个市场驱动因素的组合：（1）低地球轨道上的商业旅客旅行； （2）同时，政府将HSF能力扩展到GEO；两者都包括（3）在GEO中进行端到端太阳能卫星的放大演示。与传统的探索车舱和栖息地相比，这种规模的丰硕成果提供了空间建筑的机会，这些机会具有更多多样性，复杂性，规模以及社会学挑战性。

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