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Using predictive Bayesian Monte Carlo- Markov Chain methods to provide a probablistic solution for the Drake equation

机译：使用预测贝叶斯蒙特卡洛-马尔可夫链方法提供Drake方程的概率解

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摘要

Are we alone in the universe? It is an age-old question that continues to encourage interest and controversy among the public as well as academics. Development of explanations for life elsewhere ranges widely, but few mathematical models have been developed to measure the likelihood of concurrent, intelligent life, and those that exist are widely speculative due to the lack of information. However, with the addition of information from Kepler explorations for new solar systems within our galaxy, and calculation of the potential number of stars in the expanse of the universe, data for a useful probabilistic model to determine the likelihood of life beyond Earth may be possible with the use of predictive Bayesian statistics. Predictive Bayesian statistical methods are designed to use limited, uncertain data, to develop results. The result provides a probability curve of the likelihood of life in the universe that includes both uncertainty and potential variability within the result to provide a means to define the probability of life in the galaxy as well as life within proximity to earth. That said, the results indicate that the probability we are alone ( 1) in the galaxy is significant, while the maximum number of contemporary civilizations might be as few as a thousand. With so few concurrent civilizations, and such large distances, it is little surprise that the SETT project has not found that alien signal. Our nearest neighbor is 4 light years away, and there are under 100 stars within 50 light years, the total of the project's existence.
机译：我们一个人在宇宙中吗？这个古老的问题继续引起公众和学者的兴趣和争议。其他地方对生命的解释的发展范围很广，但是很少有数学模型可以测量并发的，智能的生命的可能性，并且由于缺乏信息，存在的模型被广泛推测。但是，加上开普勒探索银河系中新太阳系的信息以及计算宇宙中恒星的潜在数目，可以使用一个有用的概率模型数据来确定地球以外生命的可能性使用预测性贝叶斯统计量。预测贝叶斯统计方法旨在使用有限的不确定数据来得出结果。结果提供了宇宙中生命可能性的概率曲线，其中包括结果中的不确定性和潜在变异性，从而提供了一种方法来定义星系中生命的可能性以及地球附近的生命。也就是说，结果表明，我们独自一人（<1）在银河系中的概率非常大，而当代文明的最大数量可能只有一千个。由于几乎没有同时发生的文明，而且距离如此之遥，SETT项目没有发现外来信号也就不足为奇了。我们最近的邻居距离我们有4光年，而50光年之内有100颗以下的恒星，这说明该项目的存在。

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  • 来源
    《Acta astronautica》 |2019年第2期|118-130|共13页
  • 作者

    Bloetscher Frederick;

  • 作者单位

    Florida Atlantic Univ, 777 Glades Rd, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Drake; Extraterrestrial; Planets; Life;

    机译：德雷克;外星人;行星;生命;

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