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Reassessment of the Proximate Determinants of Income Levels and Growth of Nations

机译：重新评估收入水平和国家增长的主要决定因素

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This paper provides further evidence of the inconsistency of the Solow growth model with the observed cross-country variation in income levels and growth rates. I tackle the assumption of constant and identical technical progress rates across countries by providing country-specific estimates derived from a growth accounting exercise. The estimates of total factor productivity (TFP), commonly used as proxies for technical progress, appear to vary considerably across countries and mostly fall far below the alleged identical rate of 2%. Using these country-specific rates of TFP, I show that the testable predictions of the Solow growth model are often not fulfilled. Deviating from the assumption of identical technical progress rates leads in most cases to poor compliance of the model with the observed disparities of income per capita across nations. The model performs relatively better when testing the out-of-steady-state dynamics and the implied rates of convergence of growth rates. The fragility of the Solow growth model is also documented for a varied array of data sources, country samples and time periods. I conclude that the proximate determinants of income levels and growth rates of nations should be complemented by the fundamentals prior to probing the effects of specific policies on income levels and growth.
机译：本文进一步证明了Solow增长模型与观察到的收入水平和增长率的跨国差异之间的矛盾。我通过提供来自增长核算活动的针对特定国家的估算来解决各国技术进步率恒定且相同的假设。通常用作技术进步代表的全要素生产率（TFP）的估算值在各个国家之间似乎相差很大，并且大多远远低于所称的相同的2％。使用这些国家/地区的全要素生产率的比率，我证明了Solow增长模型的可检验的预测通常得不到满足。在大多数情况下，偏离相同技术进步率的假设会导致该模型与观察到的各国人均收入差距的合规性差。当测试非稳态动态和隐含的增长率收敛速度时，该模型的性能相对较好。还记录了索洛增长模型的脆弱性，涉及各种数据源，国家样本和时间段。我的结论是，在探讨具体政策对收入水平和增长的影响之前，应先用基本原理对国家收入水平和增长率的决定因素进行补充。

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