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Link between the Exchange Rate Regime and Banking, Currency and Debt Crises Occurrence

机译：汇率制度与银行，货币和债务危机的发生之间的联系

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摘要

The choice of the exchange rate regime (ERR) is one of the most critical questions facing economies, as it has a great impact on their development, financial stability, effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies and interdependence with the global financial system. While the ultimate decision depends on a number of economic and political factors, it is also of great importance to take into account its crisis susceptibility, especially in the highly integrated global economy with increasingly volatile capital flows. This paper empirically investigates the existence and magnitude of the impact of alternative ERRs on the likelihood that a banking, currency or debt crisis will occur in the economy. The author puts forward the following two hypotheses: (1) a choice of a flexible ERR rather than fixed or intermediate regimes diminishes the likelihood that the three types of financial crisis (currency, debt and banking crises) occur in the country; and (2) intermediate regimes are more prone to financial crisis occurrence as compared to the corner options. To test the hypotheses, the author uses a comprehensive data set including 51 developed and developing countries over 2000-2012. In order to assess the degree to which different currency regimes are prone to three types of financial crisis, the author employs the following econometrical model: Crisis_(it) = β_0 + β_1 ~*ERR_(it) + β_2 ~*X_(it) + ε_(it) where X is a matrix of control variables that might influence the likelihood of the onset of a particular type of crisis in country i at time t, ERR is a dummy variable encoded in three different ways depending on the hypothesis checked, and Crisis is a dummy variable coded as "1" if country i undergoes a crisis at time t and "0" otherwise.
机译：汇率制度（ERR）的选择是经济体面临的最关键问题之一，因为它对经济发展，金融稳定，货币和财政政策的有效性以及与全球金融体系的相互依存关系产生重大影响。尽管最终的决定取决于许多经济和政治因素，但考虑到其危机的敏感性，特别是在高度一体化的全球经济中，资本流动的波动也非常重要。本文通过实证研究了替代ERR的存在性和严重性对经济中发生银行，货币或债务危机的可能性的影响。作者提出以下两个假设：（1）选择一种灵活的ERR，而不是固定或中间的制度，减少了该国发生三种类型的金融危机（货币，债务和银行危机）的可能性； （2）与边际选择相比，中间体制更容易发生金融危机。为了检验假设，作者使用了一个全面的数据集，包括2000-2012年间的51个发达国家和发展中国家。为了评估不同的货币制度在何种程度上容易发生三种类型的金融危机，作者采用了以下计量经济学模型：Crisis_（it）=β_0+β_1〜* ERR_（it）+β_2〜* X_（it） +ε_（it），其中X是控制变量的矩阵，可能会影响在时间t国i发生特定类型的危机的可能性，ERR是根据检查的假设以三种不同方式编码的虚拟变量，如果国家i在时间t经历危机，则危机是一个虚拟变量，编码为“ 1”，否则为“ 0”。

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  • 来源
    《Atlantic economic journal》 |2015年第2期|301-302|共2页
  • 作者

    Mayia Samuilik;

  • 作者单位

    Economics, Lazarski University, Swieradowska 43, Warszawa, Poland 02-662;

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