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首页> 外文期刊>Atlantic economic journal >Responding to a Monetary Superpower Investigating the Behavioral Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy
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Responding to a Monetary Superpower Investigating the Behavioral Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy

机译：回应货币超级大国调查美国货币政策的行为溢出

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Between 2002 and 2006, the Federal Reserve set interest rates significantly below the rates suggested by well-known monetary policy rules. There is a growing body of research suggesting that this helped fuel an excess of liquidity in the U.S. that contributed to the 2008 worldwide financial crash. It is less well known that a number of other central banks also lowered interest rates during this period. An important question, then, is what role the Federal Reserve played in influencing other central banks to alter their own monetary policies, which could have magnified the Fed's actions in creating global liquidity. This paper addresses the issue by showing how spillovers in central bank behavior occur in theoretical rational expectations models. It then establishes empirically how U.S. monetary policy actions affect the actions of other major central banks, particularly in terms of interest rates and currency interventions. The models and data suggest that the U.S. lowering its policy rate, either in general or in reference to a monetary policy rule, influences other central banks to lower their own policy rates and intervene in currency markets, even when controlling for worldwide macroeconomic trends. It thus appears that U.S. actions were a factor in the worldwide lowering of interest rates and the increase in currency reserves in the early 2000s that may have contributed to the subsequent global liquidity boom.
机译：在2002年至2006年之间，美联储将利率设定为大大低于众所周知的货币政策规则所建议的利率。越来越多的研究表明，这助长了美国过多的流动性，从而加剧了2008年的全球金融危机。鲜为人知的是，在此期间，其他一些中央银行也降低了利率。那么，一个重要的问题是，美联储在影响其他中央银行改变自己的货币政策中起什么作用，这可能放大了美联储在创造全球流动性方面的行动。本文通过展示在理论理性预期模型中中央银行行为的溢出是如何发生的来解决这个问题的。然后从经验上确定美国的货币政策行动如何影响其他主要中央银行的行动，特别是在利率和货币干预方面。这些模型和数据表明，美国总体上或参考货币政策规则降低政策利率都会影响其他中央银行降低其政策利率并干预货币市场，即使在控制全球宏观经济趋势时也是如此。因此，美国的行动似乎是导致2000年代初全球利率降低和货币储备增加的一个因素，这可能是随后的全球流动性繁荣的原因。

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