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Compound hot droughts over China: Identification, risk patterns and variations

机译：中国上空的复合干旱：识别，风险模式和变化

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摘要

The increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases results in not only the consistent tendency of rising temperature but also changes in intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, and may thereby impact the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Increasing concern on increasing global warming has triggered research on extreme climatic events across the globe. In China, existing studies generally focused on single climatic extreme events while the combinations of different climatic events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts) and relevant impacts are rarely studied. To provide a better understanding of compound hot and dry events, in this study we first examined spatial characteristics of the correlations between temperature and drought conditions in the warm season over four different periods (i.e., 1901-1950, 1951-2015, 1951-1980, and 1981-2015). Our results show the negative connection between temperature and droughts encompasses most of China, indicating that high temperatures and droughts are generally concurrent in these regions. We then present a joint dependence model to estimate the occurrence probability of compound hot droughts over the four different periods across the country. Our results demonstrate that likelihood patterns of compound hot droughts vary among different periods. During 1901-1950, the occurrence probability of the compound hot droughts in the eastern part of the country is generally higher than the western part while the likelihood increased significantly in 1951-2015 as compared to pre-1950s over much of western China. A comparison also presents a distinct change in risk patterns between the two sub-periods (1951-1980 and 1981-2015). Given the impact of temperature extremes and drought stress on vegetation and ecosystems, we further examined variations in the likelihood of compound hot droughts regarding different climate zones and terrestrial ecosystems over various periods. Our findings may provide additional insights regarding the climate extremes and risk evaluation over China in a warming world. The proposed framework to evaluate the compound drought and occurrence probability over different climate zones and terrestrial ecosystems could also offer a valuable reference to other regions worldwide.
机译：大气中温室气体浓度的增加不仅会导致温度持续升高的趋势，而且还会导致极端气候事件的强度和频率发生变化，从而可能影响陆地生态系统的结构和功能。对全球变暖加剧的日益关注引发了全球范围内极端气候事件的研究。在中国，现有研究通常集中于单一的气候极端事件，而很少研究不同气候事件（例如高温和干旱）和相关影响的组合。为了更好地理解干热复合事件，在本研究中，我们首先研究了四个不同时期（即1901-1950年，1951-2015年，1951-1980年）温暖季节温度与干旱条件之间相关性的空间特征。 ，以及1981-2015）。我们的结果表明，温度和干旱之间的负相关关系遍及中国大部分地区，这表明高温和干旱通常在这些地区同时发生。然后，我们提出一个联合依赖模型，以估计全国四个不同时期复合热干旱的发生概率。我们的结果表明，复合高温干旱的可能性模式在不同时期之间有所不同。在1901-1950年期间，该国东部地区发生复合性高温干旱的可能性通常高于西部地区，而在1951-2015年期间，与大部分中国西部地区的1950年代相比，这种可能性明显增加。比较还显示了两个子时段（1951-1980和1981-2015）之间风险模式的明显变化。考虑到极端温度和干旱胁迫对植被和生态系统的影响，我们进一步研究了不同时期不同气候带和陆地生态系统复合高温干旱可能性的变化。我们的发现可能会提供有关气候变暖地区中国极端气候和风险评估的其他见解。拟议的评估不同气候区和陆地生态系统复合干旱和发生概率的框架也可为世界其他地区提供有价值的参考。

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  • 来源
    《Atmospheric research》 |2019年第10期|210-219|共10页
  • 作者

    Chen Liutao; Chen Xiaohua; Cheng Linyin; Zhou Ping; Liu Zhiyong;

  • 作者单位

    China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Water Resource Dept, St Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River Ba, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China|Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China;

    Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China;

    Univ Arkansas, Dept Geosci, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA;

    Guangdong Acad Sci, Guangzhou Inst Geog, Key Lab Guangdong Utilizat Remote Sensing & Geog, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, Peoples R China;

    Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China|Sun Yat Sen Univ, Guangdong Engn Technol Res Ctr Water Secur Regula, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Compound hot droughts; Joint probability; Dependence structure; Risk; China;

    机译：复合热干旱联合概率依赖结构风险中国;

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