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Compound hot droughts over China: Identification, risk patterns and variations

机译：中国复合热干旱：鉴定，风险模式和变化

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摘要

The increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases results in not only the consistent tendency of rising temperature but also changes in intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, and may thereby impact the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Increasing concern on increasing global warming has triggered research on extreme climatic events across the globe. In China, existing studies generally focused on single climatic extreme events while the combinations of different climatic events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts) and relevant impacts are rarely studied. To provide a better understanding of compound hot and dry events, in this study we first examined spatial characteristics of the correlations between temperature and drought conditions in the warm season over four different periods (i.e., 1901-1950, 1951-2015, 1951-1980, and 1981-2015). Our results show the negative connection between temperature and droughts encompasses most of China, indicating that high temperatures and droughts are generally concurrent in these regions. We then present a joint dependence model to estimate the occurrence probability of compound hot droughts over the four different periods across the country. Our results demonstrate that likelihood patterns of compound hot droughts vary among different periods. During 1901-1950, the occurrence probability of the compound hot droughts in the eastern part of the country is generally higher than the western part while the likelihood increased significantly in 1951-2015 as compared to pre-1950s over much of western China. A comparison also presents a distinct change in risk patterns between the two sub-periods (1951-1980 and 1981-2015). Given the impact of temperature extremes and drought stress on vegetation and ecosystems, we further examined variations in the likelihood of compound hot droughts regarding different climate zones and terrestrial ecosystems over various periods. Our findings may provide additional insights regarding the climate extremes and risk evaluation over China in a warming world. The proposed framework to evaluate the compound drought and occurrence probability over different climate zones and terrestrial ecosystems could also offer a valuable reference to other regions worldwide.
机译：大气温室气体的浓度越来越大，不仅导致温度上升的一致趋势，而且产生极端气候事件的强度和频率的变化，从而影响陆地生态系统的结构和运作。越来越担心越来越多的全球变暖引发了全球极端气候事件的研究。在中国，现有研究通常集中在单一气候极端事件上，而不同气候事件（例如，高温和干旱）和相关影响的组合很少。为了更好地了解复方炎热和干燥事件，在这项研究中，我们首先在四个不同时期（即1901-1950,1951-2015,1951-1980,1951-1980,1951-1980,1951-1980,1951-1980,1951-1950,1951-1950,1951-1980 ，1981-2015）。我们的结果表明，温度和干旱之间的负面连接包括中国的大部分地区，表明高温和干旱通常在这些地区同时并发。然后，我们提出了一个联合依赖模型来估计在全国各地的四个不同时期的复合热干旱发生的概率。我们的结果表明，复合热干旱的可能性模式在不同的时期之间变化。在1901年至1950年期间，该国东部的复合热干旱的发生概率通常高于西部，而1951 - 2015年的可能性在1950年代在中国西部超过20世纪50年代相比增加。比较还提出了两个子周期（1951-1980和1981-2015）之间存在明显的风险模式变化。鉴于温度极端和干旱胁迫对植被和生态系统的影响，我们进一步研究了在各种时期不同气候区和陆地生态系统的复合热干旱可能性的变化。我们的调查结果可能为在温暖的世界中对中国的气候极端和风险评估提供额外的见解。拟议的框架来评估不同气候区和地面生态系统的化合物干旱和发生概率，也可以对全球其他地区提供有价值的参考。

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  • 来源
    《Atmospheric research》 |2019年第10期|210-219|共10页
  • 作者

    Chen Liutao; Chen Xiaohua; Cheng Linyin; Zhou Ping; Liu Zhiyong;

  • 作者单位

    China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res Water Resource Dept St Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River Ba Beijing 100038 Peoples R China|Sun Yat Sen Univ Ctr Water Resources & Environm Guangzhou 510275 Guangdong Peoples R China;

    Sun Yat Sen Univ Ctr Water Resources & Environm Guangzhou 510275 Guangdong Peoples R China;

    Univ Arkansas Dept Geosci Fayetteville AR 72701 USA;

    Guangdong Acad Sci Guangzhou Inst Geog Key Lab Guangdong Utilizat Remote Sensing & Geog Guangzhou 510070 Guangdong Peoples R China;

    Sun Yat Sen Univ Ctr Water Resources & Environm Guangzhou 510275 Guangdong Peoples R China|Sun Yat Sen Univ Guangdong Engn Technol Res Ctr Water Secur Regula Guangzhou 510275 Guangdong Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Compound hot droughts; Joint probability; Dependence structure; Risk; China;

    机译：复方热干旱;联合概率;依赖结构;风险;中国;

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