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首页> 外文期刊>Australian journal of water resources >Large floods in South East Queensland, Australia: Is it valid to assume they occur randomly?
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Large floods in South East Queensland, Australia: Is it valid to assume they occur randomly?

机译：澳大利亚昆士兰州东南部的大洪水：是否可以假定它们是随机发生的？

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Flood frequency analysis and existing engineering practice assumes that flood events are randomly distributed. However, as understanding of large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and associated hydroclimatic variability (and change) increases, the assumption that flood events are random seems unlikely to be valid. This paper examines historical flood data from 10 major catchments in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia with the aim of testing for non-random patterns in the timing of the largest flood events. The results show that most (～80%) large floods in the study catchments have occurred within sets of 5-year periods separated by 35 years of lower flood risk. This finding is consistent with previous studies that have reported 20- to 40-year cycles in rainfall, flooding and drought across most of eastern Australia. Based on these insights, an explanation for the nominal 40-year cycle in SEQ flooding is proposed, and implications for describing and managing flood risk are discussed.
机译：洪水频率分析和现有工程实践均假定洪水事件是随机分布的。但是，随着人们对大规模海洋-大气过程及其相关的水文气候变异性（和变化）的了解不断增加，洪水事件是随机的这一假设似乎不太可能成立。本文研究了澳大利亚东南昆士兰州（SEQ）的10个主要流域的历史洪水数据，目的是测试最大洪水事件发生时的非随机模式。结果表明，研究流域中的大多数（〜80％）大洪水发生在5年内，被35年较低的洪水风险所分隔。这一发现与先前的研究一致，该研究报告了澳大利亚东部大部分地区降雨，洪水和干旱的20至40年周期。基于这些见解，提出了对SEQ洪水名义上40年周期的解释，并讨论了描述和管理洪水风险的含义。

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