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首页> 外文期刊>Australian journal of water resources >Benchmarking the selection of probability neutral hydrologic design floods for use in 2D hydraulic models
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Benchmarking the selection of probability neutral hydrologic design floods for use in 2D hydraulic models

机译：对用于二维水力模型的概率中性水文设计洪水的选择进行基准测试

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In the 2016 release of Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), variability of flood influencing factors (such as losses and temporal pattern) is now explicitly considered through application of Monte Carlo and ensemble approaches. However, hydrologic models are commonly an input for 2D hydraulic modelling, where computational constraints prevent a large number of floods from being modelled. Practitioners are therefore often required to select 'representative floods' for use in hydraulic modelling. When making this selection there is an implicit assumption that the probability of rainfall directly corresponds to the probability of flood levels-that is, the transformation is 'probability neutral'. This assumption is often untested. The 'representative flood' approach was benchmarked against probability neutral estimates of flood depths constructed through Monte Carlo application of a 2D hydraulic model. Hydrographs that were found to be probability neutral with regards to peak outflows from the hydrologic model did not necessarily result in probability neutral estimates of flood depths. This demonstrates the need for running a greater selection of events to avoid generating biassed hydraulic model results.
机译：在2016年发布的《澳大利亚降雨与径流》（ARR）中，现在已通过应用蒙特卡洛和整体方法明确考虑了洪水影响因素的变化（例如损失和时间格局）。但是，水文模型通常是2D水力建模的输入，其中计算约束阻止了对大量洪水的建模。因此，从业人员通常需要选择“代表性洪水”以用于水力建模。在进行选择时，有一个隐含的假设，即降雨的概率直接对应于洪水位的概率，也就是说，转换是“概率中性”的。该假设通常未经检验。 “代表性洪水”方法是以通过二维水力模型的蒙特卡罗方法构造的洪水深度概率中性估计为基准的。对于从水文模型流出的峰值流量，水文图被发现是概率中性的，并不一定导致洪水深度的概率中性估计。这表明需要对事件进行更多选择，以避免产生有偏差的水力模型结果。

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