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Flood frequency and design flood estimation procedures in the United States: Progress and challenges

机译：美国的洪水频率和设计洪水估算程序：进展和挑战

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Design flood estimation procedures in the United States have traditionally focused on two primary methods: frequency analysis ofpeak flows for floodplain management and levee design; and deterministic, probable maximum flood (PMF) estimates for design of dams and nuclear facilities. Federal Agencies in the United States, including the Bureau of Reclamation, US Geological Survey and Army Corps of Engineers, are currently examining potential changes to these standard flood hydrology procedures. This paper presents overviews of some ongoing investigations and data collection studies to support potential changes in design flood estimation. For floodplain management, the current guideline is Bulletin 17B, which specifies the use of an LP3 distribution, method of moments and regional skew information. Potential improvements to Bulletin 17B currently under consideration are: (i) use of historical and paleoflood information; (ii) adjusting for low outliers; (Hi) improved plotting positions; and (iv) confidence intervals. Ongoing testing results are presented, highlighting the expected moments algorithm. In contrast to well-established, deterministic (PMF) extreme flood estimates for dam safety, agencies are now moving toward risk-based techniques. The Bureau of Reclamation has developed and applied several methods in order to estimate extreme floods and probabilities for large dams. Techniques used to date are summarised, along with those being considered by other US agencies. Improvements to extreme flood databases that provide inputs, including extreme storms and probable maximum precipitation estimates, precipitation frequency and paleofloods, are ongoing. Some challenges to updating design flood methods and data, including institutional effects, national scale, research to operations and use of new technologies, are described.
机译：传统上，美国的设计洪水估算程序主要关注两种主要方法：对洪泛区管理和堤防设计进行峰值流量频率分析；确定的，可能的最大洪水（PMF）估算，用于水坝和核设施的设计。美国的联邦机构，包括开垦局，美国地质调查局和陆军工程兵团，目前正在研究这些标准洪水水文学程序的潜在变化。本文概述了一些正在进行的调查和数据收集研究，以支持设计洪水估算中的潜在变化。对于洪泛区管理，当前的准则是Bulletin 17B，其中指定了LP3分布，矩量方法和区域偏斜信息的使用。当前正在考虑的第17B号公告的潜在改进包括：（i）使用历史信息和古洪水信息； （ii）调整较低的离群值； （嗨）改善了绘图位置; （iv）置信区间。给出了持续的测试结果，突出了预期的矩算法。与公认的大坝安全确定性（PMF）极端洪水估算相反，各机构现在正朝着基于风险的技术迈进。开垦局已经开发并应用了几种方法来估算大型水坝的极端洪水和概率。总结了迄今为止使用的技术，以及其他美国机构正在考虑的技术。正在对包括洪水在内的极端洪水数据库进行改进，包括极端风暴和可能的最大降水估计数，降水频率和古洪水。描述了更新设计洪水方法和数据的一些挑战，包括制度影响，国家规模，对运行的研究以及新技术的使用。

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    《Australian journal of water resources》 |2011年第1期|p.33-46|共14页
  • 作者

    JF England;

  • 作者单位

    Flood Hydrology and Emergency Management, US Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado, USA;

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