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首页> 外文期刊>Australian journal of water resources >Addressing climatic non-stationarity in the assessment of flood risk
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Addressing climatic non-stationarity in the assessment of flood risk

机译：解决洪水风险评估中的气候不稳定问题

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摘要

Present-day flood estimation practise is underpinned by the assumption that flood risk in a future climate will reflect historical flood risk as represented by the instrumental record. This assumption, which is commonly referred to as the assumption of stationarity, recently has been questioned as a result of both an increased appreciation of the natural variability in our hydroclimate at temporal scales beyond that of the instrumental record, as well as the projected intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to anthropogenic climate change. These developments have led some authors to suggest that the stationarity assumption should henceforth be considered invalid, thereby calling into question all the methods that are underpinned by it, including flood frequency analysis using observed streamflow records, and rainfall-runoff modelling informed by instrumental precipitation and streamflow records. In this paper we review a wide range of possible sources of non-stationarity in the Australian climate record, and highlight that the primary sources of non-stationarity relevant for flood risk assessments include natural climate modes that vary at timescales similar to the length of the instrumental record, as well as long-term trends and step changes that are attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Although prescriptive guidelines that describe how to address this non-stationarity are currently unavailable in Australia, this review nonetheless highlights the importance of using long records for flood analysis, possibly by extending records using nearby stations. Furthermore, it will become increasingly necessary to develop plausible estimates of how the climate will evolve, and we describe some climate modelling tools that allow for the development of future climate scenarios. Finally, we emphasise that removing the assumption of stationarity will inevitably result in an increase in the uncertainty associated with future flood estimates, and suggest that this may require new methods to conceptualise and manage future flood risk.
机译：当前的洪水估算实践以以下假设为基础：未来气候中的洪水风险将反映仪器记录所代表的历史洪水风险。这种假设通常被称为平稳性假设，最近受到质疑，其原因是人们对水文气候在超出工具记录范围的时间尺度上的自然变异性的认识有所提高，并且预计人为气候变化导致的水文循环。这些发展使一些作者提出，从那时起就应该认为平稳性假设是无效的，从而使它所支持的所有方法都受到质疑，包括使用观测到的水流记录进行洪水频率分析，以及通过仪器性降水和降雨来进行降雨径流模拟。流记录。在本文中，我们回顾了澳大利亚气候记录中各种非平稳性的可能来源，并着重指出与洪水风险评估相关的非平稳性的主要来源包括自然气候模式，其时间尺度与气候变化的长度相似。工具记录，以及由于人为气候变化引起的长期趋势和步骤变化。尽管目前在澳大利亚尚无描述如何解决这种非平稳性的规范性指南，但该评论仍然强调了使用长记录进行洪水分析的重要性，可能是通过使用附近的站来扩展记录。此外，越来越有必要对气候将如何演变做出合理的估计，并且我们描述了一些气候模型工具，这些工具可用于开发未来的气候情景。最后，我们强调消除平稳性的假设将不可避免地导致与未来洪水估算相关的不确定性增加，并建议这可能需要新的方法来概念化和管理未来洪水风险。

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