A statistical model for flood forecasting

JH Zhao; ZY Dong; ML Zhao

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A statistical model for flood forecasting

机译：洪水预报的统计模型

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摘要

A statistical model is proposed in this paper that can be used for river stage forecasting. This model is able to handle the volatilities associated with the data used in flood forecasting. Different from conventional flood forecasting methods, this model works well with fatter-tail distribution and volatility clustering in the flood related data. Observed water stage data from Guangxi, China, are employed to test the proposed method with promising results.

机译：本文提出了一种可用于河段预报的统计模型。该模型能够处理与洪水预报中使用的数据相关的波动性。与常规洪水预报方法不同，此模型与洪水相关数据中的尾巴分布和波动性聚类很好地结合使用。来自中国广西的观测水位数据被用于测试该方法，结果令人满意。

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来源
《Australian journal of water resources》 |2009年第1期|43-5282|共11页
作者
JH Zhao; ZY Dong; ML Zhao;
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作者单位

School of Economics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane;

Department of Electrical Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Horn, Kowloon, Hong Kong;

Guangxi Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau, Nanning, Guangxi, PR China;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
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关键词
statistical model; flood forecasting; river stage forecasting; GARCH; lagrange multiplier; maximum likelihood estimation; ARMAX; SVM;

机译：统计模型;洪水预报;河段预报GARCH;拉格朗日乘数最大似然估计;ARMAX;支持向量机;

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A statistical model for flood forecasting

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