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首页> 外文期刊>Australian & New Zealand journal of statistics >Spatial modelling of the two-party preferred vote in Australian federal elections: 2001-2016
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Spatial modelling of the two-party preferred vote in Australian federal elections: 2001-2016

机译：澳大利亚联邦选举双人首选投票的空间建模：2001-2016

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Summary We examine the relationships between electoral socio‐demographic characteristics and two‐party preferences in the six Australian federal elections held between 2001 and 2016. Socio‐demographic information is derived from the Australian Census which occurs every 5 years. Since a census is not directly available for each election, an imputation method is employed to estimate census data for the electorates at the time of each election. This accounts for both spatial and temporal changes in electoral characteristics between censuses. To capture any spatial heterogeneity, a spatial error model is estimated for each election, which incorporates a spatially structured random effect vector. Over time, the impact of most socio‐demographic characteristics that affect electoral two‐party preference do not vary, with age distribution, industry of work, incomes, household mobility and relationships having strong effects in each of the six elections. Education and unemployment are among those that have varying effects. All data featured in this study have been contributed to the eechidnaR package (available on CRAN).
机译：发明内容我们研究了2001年至2016年举行的六个澳大利亚联邦选举中选举社会人口特征和双方偏好的关系。社会人口统计信息来自澳大利亚人口普查，每5年发生一次。由于每次选举不可直接可用，因此估算方法用于在每次选举时估算选民的人口普查数据。这占普查之间的选举特征的空间和时间变化。为了捕获任何空间异质性，每次选举估计空间误差模型，该选举包括空间结构化随机效应载体。随着时间的推移，影响选举双方偏好的大多数社会人口统计特征的影响不会随着年龄分布，工作，收入行业，收入行业，家庭流动和在六次选举中产生强烈影响的关系而变化。教育和失业是具有不同影响的人之一。本研究中的所有数据都有助于EECHIDNAR包（可在CRAN上提供）。

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