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Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

机译：我们脱离了树林吗？

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In early 2007 (doesn't that seem like forever ago?), I recall attending a conference where a leader in the business jet MRO sector was raving about the boom times. In that time period, the business aviation market was truly booming with multiple multi-aircraft orders at all the shows and backlogs at the business jet OEMs that made it seem impossible to get a slot for an aircraft order in anything close to a timely manner.This gentleman had been in the business for at least 30 years - likely more. He was considered an expert - a trusted leader and was well-liked and respected. He was sitting on a panel at the conference where he was asked about the potential for the next few years and whether he saw a slowdown coming or more good times. The question was phrased, "When do you predict the boom will end?" The hubris of his answer has stayed with me all these years. He replied, "I don't see it ending. Ever." He wasn't alone. The entire panel - all big name leaders in the business - agreed.I'm not here to dis that guy or the panel, but even then, I remember thinking, doesn't he remember the economic recession of the early 80s? Or the hard times of the early 1990s? Or what about the rough patch right after 9-11 exacerbated by the dot com bubble bursting? Those quickly popped to mind and made me recall layoffs and furloughs and green tails stacked up on the ramp - oh my!Shortly thereafter, towards the end of 2007, the real estate bubble burst. Then, the car manufacturers started suffering hard times and several of them flew into Washington, D. C. in their company business jets to ask Congress for financial assistance in keeping their factories afloat. This act of using business jets to beg for money was seized upon as the ultimate disconnect between those executives and the reality of the impact of the economic downturn on the average person during the Great Recession. Consequently, many business jet operators were shamed into selling or underutilizing their jets and cancelling jet orders.
机译：在2007年初（似乎是Forever afireve的似乎？），我记得出席商务喷射MRO部门的领导者对繁荣时期的领导者进行了会议。在那段时间内，商业航空市场真正蓬勃发展，在商业喷气机OEM的所有节目和积压上都有多种多型的多种飞机订单，这似乎不可能在及时的情况下以任何靠近的方式获得飞机订单的插槽。这位绅士一直在业务中至少30年 - 很可能更多。他被认为是一个专家 - 一个值得信赖的领导者，很受欢迎和尊重。他正坐在会议上的小组上，他被问到未来几年的潜力，以及他是否看到过帐或更美好时光。问题是措辞，“你什么时候预测繁荣将结束？”他答案的哈布里斯这些年来留在我身边。他回答说：“我没有看到它结束。永远。”他并不孤单。整个小组 - 业务中的所有大名称领导者 - 同意。我不在这里解散那个人或小组，但即便如此，我记得思考，他不记得80年代初的经济衰退吗？或者20世纪90年代初的艰难时期？或者在9-11之后粗糙的贴片突出的粗糙补丁突然突破？那些迅速突破的人，让我召回裁员和休假和绿色的尾巴堆积在坡道上 - 哦，我的！此后不久，在2007年底，房地产泡沫爆裂。然后，汽车制造商开始困难时期，其中几个人飞入华盛顿，D. C.在他们的公司业务喷气机中，以便在保持其工厂漂浮的情况下询问国会。这种使用商务喷气机乞求金钱的行为被扣押，因为这些高管与经济衰退在普通经济衰退期间的普通人对普通人的影响之间的最终脱节。因此，许多商业喷气式飞机经营者被卖给销售或减少他们的喷气机并取消了喷射命令。

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