A bubble of impending pilot retirements among major carriers over the next seven years is forcing the entire pilot supply chain to unify in a search for solutions to keep the industry due to stalling due to open cockpit seats. There is still debate about the magnitude of the problem, but its incipient effects are already showing in the form of canceled flights, parked regional aircraft and a 10% cut in service to 86 communities, says Roger Cohen, president of the Regional Airline Association (RAA). Cohen says that in the past, pilot shortages were like Bigfoot sightings -everyone had heard about them but no one had seen any. "There's almost a universal acknowledgement now that there is a shortage," he says. Long-time industry observer Louis Smith, a principal at the Future & Active Pilot Advisors (FAPA) service, says the true sign of a shortage will be when the airlines "begin paying people to learn how to fly." That has not happened yet, but he does expect major airlines soon to spend money on advertisements for pilots, which they have not had to do since the pilot strikes at Continental and United in the 1980s.
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