In the world of air cargo, two factors have remained constant since at least 1970: global demand for air freight grew each year, and the freighter aircraft fleet increased in response to the growing traffic. The events of the past 18 months have caused many to question the validity of these assumptions in making predictions about the freighter fleet in the years ahead. First, consider air freight traffic. Historically, air freight traffic (measured in tonne-kilometer terms) has increased on average about 7% per year. At this rate, traffic nearly doubles every 10 years. Of course, there have been year-to-year variations. In good years traffic would increase 12% or more; in bad years traffic would stagnate, even posting modest declines on two occasions―in the recession following the Gulf war in 1991 and during the Asian financial meltdown in 1998.
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