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首页> 外文期刊>Biology Bulletin >Phenological Changes in the Wintering of Pelobates fuscus (Pelobatidae, Amphibia) in the Climate Transformation Conditions in the Northern Lower Volga Region
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Phenological Changes in the Wintering of Pelobates fuscus (Pelobatidae, Amphibia) in the Climate Transformation Conditions in the Northern Lower Volga Region

机译：下伏尔加河地区北部气候转变条件下人圆珠菌（Pelobatidae，两栖类）越冬的物候变化

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摘要

The patterns of change in the calendar dates of the start, end, and duration of wintering of the common spadefoot toad (Pelobates fuscus) in the Medveditsa River valley (Lysogorskii district, Saratov oblast) in the period from 1892 until 2014 are considered. A reduction in the duration of wintering by seven days due to a shift in the start of wintering to a later date and that of the end of wintering to an earlier date (on average) over the last 120 years is shown. The changes in the end and start of wintering mainly began to emerge in the 1950s and 1980s, respectively, and significantly accelerated in 2002-2014. The periodicity of changes in the dates of the start and end of wintering occur mainly owing to the winter severity cycles (8-9 years) and the humidity-aridity ones (Bruckner cycle of 36-38 years). Our analysis of the temperature regime across the soil profile shows that the shortening of wintering is mainly caused by the earlier start of the spawning migration of mature individuals of this species in the spring. The depth of location of P. fuscus individuals in the soil profile has decreased steadily from the early 1980s to 2014. Predictive models have been developed allowing us to forecast the termination of movement of P. fuscus individuals in the soil profile from the horizons where they can be found in the period of activity by 2050, as well as a significant reduction in the wintering duration or even its complete disappearance as a phase of the annual cycle in the course of 315 years provided that the modern climatic trend will continue.
机译：考虑了1892年至2014年期间梅德韦迪察河河谷（萨拉索夫州利索戈尔斯基地区）的普通spa足蟾蜍（Pelobates fuscus）越冬的开始，结束和持续时间的日历变化模式。显示了由于过去120年来越冬开始至较晚日期和越冬结束较早日期（平均）而导致的越冬持续时间减少了7天。越冬结束和开始的变化主要分别在1950年代和1980年代开始出现，并在2002-2014年显着加速。冬季开始和结束日期的变化周期主要是由于冬季严重性周期（8-9年）和湿度干旱性周期（布鲁克纳周期为36-38年）所致。我们对整个土壤剖面温度状况的分析表明，越冬的缩短主要是由于该物种的成熟个体在春季产卵移徙的较早开始造成的。从1980年代初期到2014年，番红花个体在土壤剖面中的定位深度一直在稳步下降。已经建立了预测模型，使我们能够从他们的视野中预测番红花个体在土壤剖面中运动的终止。只要现代气候趋势能够持续下去，就可以在2050年之前的活动期内发现，并且在315年的过程中，冬季持续时间将大大减少甚至完全消失，这是全年周期的一个阶段（315年）。

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