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Projecting the impact of climate change on design recommendations for residential buildings in Iran

机译：预测气候变化对伊朗住宅建筑设计建议的影响

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The outdoor climate is changing. In order to assure thermal comfort in new and existing residential buildings we need to revise and adapt our building designs. Therefore, 10 meteorological stations in Iran were selected to investigate and predict the influence of climate change on the local climate diversity and variability. In order to provide a comfortable and healthy indoor environment, bioclimatic design recommendations during early design stages were revised, including during the two periods of 1986-2015 and 2020-2050. A modified Givoni's bioclimatic chart was used to visualize the climate variation and to inform designers about accurate and climate-proof bioclimatic design recommendations. The second-generation Canadian Earth System Model was used to predict changes in the maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity components of future decades. Based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 for the greenhouse gas emission section of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the effects of climate change on different cooling and heating strategies were examined. The findings of this study showed that for all the studied stations, apart from Abadan, the trend in temperature increase over the coming decades is not unforeseen. The use of heating strategies will decrease, and the use of cooling strategies will increase. Finally, this study presents an adjusted bioclimatic chart of Iran and quantifies the adaptation measures to climate change to reduce energy use and avoid overheating.
机译：室外气候正在变化。为了确保新旧住宅建筑的热舒适性，我们需要修改和调整建筑设计。因此，伊朗选择了10个气象站来调查和预测气候变化对当地气候多样性和变异性的影响。为了提供舒适和健康的室内环境，对早期设计阶段（包括1986-2015年和2020-2050年两个阶段）的生物气候设计建议进行了修订。修改后的Givoni生物气候图用于可视化气候变化，并向设计人员介绍准确和耐气候的生物气候设计建议。第二代加拿大地球系统模型用于预测未来几十年的最高和最低温度以及相对湿度分量的变化。基于政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告中温室气体排放部分的代表性浓度途径（RCP）2.6，RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5，研究了气候变化对不同制冷和供暖策略的影响。这项研究的结果表明，除了亚巴丹以外，对于所有已研究的气象站，未来几十年的温度升高趋势都是不可预见的。加热策略的使用将减少，而冷却策略的使用将增加。最后，本研究提供了经过调整的伊朗生物气候图，并量化了对气候变化的适应措施，以减少能源使用并避免过热。

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