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Approach to manage parameter and choice uncertainty in life cycle optimisation of building design: Case study of optimal insulation thickness

机译：建筑设计中生命周期优化中的参数和选择不确定性的方法：案例研究最佳绝缘厚度

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摘要

In order to mitigate global warming, it is important to decrease the climate impact from the building stock, which accounts for 39% of the GHG emissions in Europe. An extensive portion of these emissions are generated from the heating of buildings, but emissions also occur from the production of building materials. It is therefore important to find building design solutions that consider both production and operation and maintenance in order to minimise the climate impact of a building during its entire lifetime. At the same time, the production of buildings has to be cost-efficient. In the design of buildings, both climate impact and cost must be evaluated in order to make well-supported decisions.The overall aim of this study was to develop a procedure to facilitate using life cycle studies as decision support for building design. The presented approach will provide a structured means to manage choice and parameter uncertainty when life cycle studies are used as decision support in order to optimise building design. There are many uncertainties in the design phase of buildings, and the approach is demonstrated here in a case study of insulation thickness in the building envelope. The results can be used to support decisions on where to effectively make improvements when subjective choices and parameter uncertainties are considered in the study. The suggested approach will lessen the problem of false certainty in the conclusions drawn, and at the same time provide strong decision support.
机译：为了减轻全球变暖，重要的是减少建筑物股票的气候影响，占欧洲温室气体排放量的39％。这些排放的广泛部分是从建筑物的加热产生的，但是在建筑材料的生产中也发生了排放。因此，找到建筑设计解决方案，考虑生产和运营和维护，以便在整个寿命期间最小化建筑物的气候影响。与此同时，建筑物的生产必须具有成本效益。在建筑物的设计中，必须评估气候影响和成本，以便做出良好支持的决策。本研究的整体目标是制定一种促进利用生命周期研究作为建筑设计的决策支持的程序。当生命周期研究用作决策支持时，所提出的方法将提供管理选择和参数不确定性的结构化手段，以便优化建筑设计。建筑物的设计阶段存在许多不确定性，并且在此处在建筑包络中的绝缘厚度案例研究方面证明了这种方法。结果可用于支持在研究中考虑主观选择和参数不确定性时有效改善的决策。建议的方法将在得出的结论中减少错误确定性的问题，同时提供强大的决策支持。

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