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Longitudinal prediction of the operational energy use of buildings

机译：建筑物运行能耗的纵向预测

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Thus far most studies of operational energy use of buildings fail to take a longitudinal view, or in other words, do not take into account how operational energy use changes during the lifetime of a building. However, such a view is important when predicting the impact of climate change, or for long term energy accounting purposes. This article presents an approach to deliver a longitudinal prediction of operational energy use. The work is based on the review of deterioration in thermal performance, building maintenance effects, and future climate change. The key issues are to estimate the service life expectancy and thermal performance degradation of building components while building maintenance and changing weather conditions are considered at the same time. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the application of the deterministic and stochastic approaches, respectively. The work concludes that longitudinal prediction of operational energy use is feasible, but the prediction will depend largely on the availability of extensive and reliable monitoring data. This premise is not met in most current buildings.
机译：迄今为止，对建筑物的运行能耗的大多数研究都没有纵观，或者换句话说，没有考虑建筑物的使用寿命期间运行能耗的变化。但是，这种观点在预测气候变化的影响或长期能源核算目的时很重要。本文介绍了一种可纵向预测运营能源使用量的方法。这项工作基于对热性能恶化，建筑物维护效果以及未来气候变化的评估。关键问题是在同时考虑建筑物维护和不断变化的天气条件的同时，估计建筑物组件的预期使用寿命和热性能下降。给出了两个例子，分别论证了确定性和随机方法的应用。这项工作得出的结论是，纵向预测运营能源使用量是可行的，但这种预测将在很大程度上取决于广泛而可靠的监测数据的可用性。当前大多数建筑物都无法满足此前提。

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