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Impact of climate warming on passive night cooling potential

机译：气候变暖对被动夜间降温潜力的影响

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Night-time ventilation is often seen as a promising passive cooling concept. However, as it requires a sufficiently high temperature difference between ambient air and the building structure, this technique is highly sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. In order to quantify the impact of climate warming on the night-time ventilative cooling potential in Europe, eight representative locations across a latitudinal transect were considered. Based on a degree-hours method, site-specific regression models were developed to predict the climatic cooling potential (CCP) from minimum daily air temperature (T_(min)). CCP was computed for present conditions (1961-90) using measured T_(min) data from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) database. Possible time-dependent changes in CCP were assessed for 1990-2100, with particular emphasis on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 'A2' and 'B2' scenarios for future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Time-dependent, site-specific T_(min) scenarios were constructed from 30 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data sets, as obtained from the European PRUDENCE project. Under both emissions scenarios and across all locations and seasons, CCP was found to decrease substantially by the end of the 21st century. For the six Central and Northern European locations ( > 47°N) CCP was found to decrease in summer (June-August) by 20-50%. For the two Southern European locations (Madrid and Athens), future CCP was found to become negligible during the summer and to decrease by 20-55% during the spring and the autumn. The study clearly shows that night-time cooling potential will cease to be sufficient to ensure thermal comfort in many Southern and Central European buildings. In Central and Northern Europe, a significant passive cooling potential is likely to remain, at least for the next few decades.
机译：夜间通风通常被认为是有前途的被动冷却概念。但是，由于它要求环境空气与建筑结构之间有足够高的温差，因此该技术对气候条件的变化高度敏感。为了量化气候变暖对欧洲夜间通风降温潜力的影响，考虑了横断面的八个代表性位置。基于度-小时方法，开发了特定于站点的回归模型，以根据最低每日气温（T_（min））预测气候降温潜力（CCP）。使用来自欧洲气候评估（ECA）数据库的实测T_（min）数据，计算了当前条件（1961-90）的CCP。对1990-2100年CCP可能随时间变化的情况进行了评估，特别强调了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）未来温室气体和气溶胶排放的“ A2”和“ B2”情景。从欧洲PRUDENCE项目获得的30个区域气候模型（RCM）模拟数据集构建了随时间变化，特定于站点的T_（min）方案。在两种排放情景下以及在所有地点和季节，CCP都将在21世纪末大幅减少。对于中欧和北欧的六个位置（> 47°N），CCP在夏季（6月至8月）减少了20-50％。对于南欧的两个地区（马德里和雅典），未来的CCP在夏季变得微不足道，而在春季和秋季则降低了20-55％。该研究清楚地表明，夜间冷却的潜力将不足以确保许多南欧和中欧建筑物的热舒适性。在中欧和北欧，至少在接下来的几十年中，可能会保留大量的被动冷却潜力。

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