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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of economic research >A MODEL OF INFLATION TRANSMISSION IN AN EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONE
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A MODEL OF INFLATION TRANSMISSION IN AN EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONE

机译：汇率目标区中的通货膨胀传递模型

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摘要

I incorporate an exchange rate target zone with intramarginal interventions in a small open economy model. Using the method of undetermined coefficients, I solve for the price level and the nominal exchange rate to determine how price shocks from the large economy affect the small open economy. The results show that the behaviour of inflation transmission within the band differs from the behavior of inflation transmission at the edge of the band of the target zone. Foreign shocks can affect local prices in both cases but the central bank can respond through market interventions within the band while it cannot do so at the edge. Near the edge of the band, a central bank has to intervene to stop the exchange rate from breaching the band. My model predicts that if the interventions are robust, then the exchange rate is mean reverting and an exchange rate target zone can insulate an economy from foreign price shocks. Based on the model, central bank interventions contribute to long-run price stability in a target zone regime. Finally, I empirically test the model using unit root and cointegration tests, and present some policy implications.
机译：我在一个小型开放经济模型中将汇率目标区域与边际干预相结合。我使用不确定的系数方法求解价格水平和名义汇率，以确定大型经济体的价格冲击如何影响小型开放经济体。结果表明，频带内的通气传输行为不同于目标区域频带边缘的通气传输行为。在这两种情况下，外国冲击都可能影响本地价格，但是中央银行可以通过范围内的市场干预来做出反应，而在边缘地区则无法这样做。在该区间边缘附近，中央银行必须进行干预，以阻止汇率突破该区间。我的模型预测，如果干预措施是有力的，那么汇率就是均值回复，汇率目标区域可以使经济免受外国价格冲击的影响。基于该模型，中央银行的干预措施有助于目标区域体制中的长期价格稳定。最后，我使用单位根和协整检验对模型进行了经验检验，并提出了一些政策含义。

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