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The case against price-level targeting

机译：针对价格水平定位的案例

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摘要

As the Fed begins to wrestle with how to stimulate growth in the next economic downturn in an environment of low interest rates, a number of possible changes in its policy framework are being entertained. One in particular that has gained considerable support is price-level targeting, based on the view that this approach would tend to move inflation and nominal interest rates up late in the business cycle, yielding more room for rate cuts when the downturn ensues. We outline the inherent difficulties involved in controlling the level of inflation under the current inflation-targeting regime. We then argue that requiring the Fed to meet the more stringent objective of a price-level target could introduce significantly greater volatility into output growth—potentially worsening economic downturns—than is the case under the current policy framework. We also consider a preferred course of action that adds a bit more flexibility to the current framework, at least for the near to the medium term, and how the Fed might deal with the next recession.
机译：随着美联储开始努力在低利率环境下如何在下一次经济衰退中刺激经济增长，其政策框架可能会发生许多变化。特别是已经获得了相当大的支持的是价格水平目标，该观点认为，这种方法将倾向于在商业周期后期将通货膨胀率和名义利率上移，从而在经济下滑接而至时为降息提供更大的空间。我们概述了当前通货膨胀目标制下控制通货膨胀水平所固有的困难。然后，我们认为，与当前政策框架下的情况相比，要求美联储实现更严格的价格水平目标可能会给产出增长带来更大的波动性，从而可能加剧经济下滑。我们还考虑了一种优选的行动方案，至少在中期之前，该方案为当前框架增加了更多灵活性，并且美联储将如何应对下一次经济衰退。

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