Climate Change Will Get Bet On It

Pat Regnier

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Climate Change Will Get Bet On It

机译：气候变化将成风

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A top investment strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management sent a note to clients earlier this year with a dire forecast. Despite global efforts to stop climate change, sea levels are likely to rise dramatically, threatening the 40 percent of Americans who live along the coast.On the other hand, there will probably be some investment opportunities in sea walls."A storm surge barrier system protecting New York City and parts of New Jersey could cost $2.7 million per meter," Michael Cembalest, the firm's chairman of market and investment strategy, wrote in his annual Eye on the Market energy newsletter in April. He added that governments would probably struggle to pay that cost, perhaps turning to either bonds or outright privatization.As the U.S. grapples with a second straight year of record hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, a small but growing number of hedge funds, pension plans, and other investors are testing strategies to take advantage of those signs of climate change. Where they're putting their money provides a glimpse into some of the likely tangible impacts from higher temperatures. The investments include storm and flood protection along the coast, desalination plants in drought-prone regions, new approaches to agriculture, and even land far from the ocean for when rising seas shift the real estate market. "In the early stages, people will be nervous," says Cembalest, who calls himself an advocate for better flood control. "And the returns will be higher."

机译：摩根大通资产管理公司（J.P. Morgan Asset Management）的一位顶级投资策略师于今年早些时候向客户发送了一封说明，并给出了可怕的预测。尽管全球为阻止气候变化做出了努力，但海平面仍可能急剧上升，威胁到沿海地区40％的美国人。另一方面，海堤可能会有一些投资机会。保护纽约市和新泽西州的部分地区每米造价为270万美元，”该公司市场与投资策略主席Michael Cembalest在4月份的年度《市场之眼》能源通讯中写道。他补充说，各国政府可能会难以支付这笔费用，可能转向债券或完全私有化。随着美国连续第二年遭遇创纪录的飓风，洪水和野火，对冲基金，养老金计划的数量却在不断增加，其他投资者正在测试策略，以利用这些气候变化的迹象。他们将钱投入何处，可以一窥高温带来的一些可能的明显影响。这些投资包括沿海的风暴和洪水防护，干旱多发地区的海水淡化厂，新的农业生产方法，甚至是当海洋上升改变房地产市场时，远离海洋的土地。 Cembalest说：“在早期，人们会感到紧张。”他自称是更好的防洪倡导者。 “而且回报会更高。”

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《Business week》 |2018年第4588期|24-26|共3页
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Pat Regnier;
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1. Political Orientation Moderates the Relationship Between Climate Change Beliefs and Worry About Climate Change [J] . Thea Gregersen, Rouven Doran, Gisela B?hm, Frontiers in Psychology . 2020,第a期

机译：政治取向采取了气候变化信念与担心气候变化之间的关系
2. Climate change impacts on socioeconomic activities through labor productivity changes considering interactions between socioeconomic and climate systems [J] . Matsumoto Kenichi Journal of Cleaner Production . 2019,第APRa10期

机译：考虑到社会经济与气候系统之间的相互作用，气候变化通过劳动生产率的变化对社会经济活动的影响
3. Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part Ⅱ: Air quality projections and the interplay between emissions and climate change [J] . Campbell Patrick, Zhang Yang, Yan Fang, Environmental Pollution . 2018,第JULa期

机译：在不断变化的气候中，运输部门排放对未来美国空气质量的影响。第二部分：空气质量预测以及排放与气候变化之间的相互作用
4. ENHANCING GLOBAL CLIMATE DATA EXCHANGE TO BETTER MONITOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMPOWER POLICY MAKERS, SCIENTISTS AND THE COMMUNITY [C] . Muhammad Shafiq, Bernardo Santos, Ana Alexandra Pérez, IAC;International Astronautical Congress . 2011

机译：加强全球气候数据交换，以更好地监测气候变化和企业政策制定者，科学家和社区
5. Changes in the regional hydroclimate of the Midwest United States between the 6-kBP and current climate. [D] . Otieno, Francis Ochieng. 2005

机译：在6 kBP和当前气候之间，美国中西部地区的水文气候变化。
6. Political Orientation Moderates the Relationship Between Climate Change Beliefs and Worry About Climate Change [O] . Thea Gregersen, Rouven Doran, Gisela Böhm, 2020

机译：政治取向采取了气候变化信念与担心气候变化之间的关系
7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。

Climate Change Will Get Bet On It

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