Beginning in 1990, the Canadian Space Agency conducted a series of studies to determine the probability of survival of the RADARSAT spacecraft, to be launched in 1995. It was found that the artificial debris environment predicted would pose an unacceptable risk to the vehicle. A review of the methods used in these studies revealed that many of the previous estimates of the probability of critical satellite damage had relied on unnecessarily conservative assumptions. In the current study, a method that applied solid modelling was employed which eliminated the need to use these assumptions. Spacecraft components and shielding were modelled, and then a series of simulated impacts were generated to determine component and overall vulnerability. The impacting particle and the resultant debris were modelled using cones centred on the particle's path. The estimated vulnerability is 12 times less than that predicted in previous studies.
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