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Evidence for a climate-driven hydrologic regime shift in the Canadian Columbia Basin

机译：加拿大哥伦比亚盆地气候驱动的水文情势转变的证据

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Water resources from the Columbia River Basin are intensely used for domestic, agricultural, industrial and hydroelectric generation needs. Water availability in the Pacific Northwest is influenced by several ocean-atmosphere modes of climate variability that occur in the Pacific Ocean. Climate change has the potential to alter these relationships and influence both the volume and timing of streamflow in the snowmelt-dominated tributaries to the Columbia River. Here, the historical influences of climate variability and recent climate warming on the volume and timing of streamflow for 40 tributary streams in the Columbia River Basin of Canada were evaluated. Regional relationships were found between streamflow and several Pacific Ocean climate indices, including the already established relationships with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, in recent decades the statistical relationship between streamflow and climate indices has become weaker, which has implications for managers using these indices as decision-making tools. A comparison of the average annual streamflow for the cool PDO phase, which occurred from 1947 to 1976, to the more recent cool phase from 1999 to 2011 indicates a 11% decline across the Canadian portion of the basin. Removing the influence of these climate indices on historical streamflow reveals decreases in the residual streamflow beginning sometime in the 1980s. The potential role of increased temperatures on streamflow was investigated, and statistically significant relationships between decreased streamflow and increased temperatures in the summer months were found, particularly with the number of days over 18 degrees C. The results suggest that climate change may be altering the historical relationship between climate indices and streamflow in the Canadian portion of the Columbia Basin.
机译：哥伦比亚河流域的水资源被大量用于家庭，农业，工业和水力发电。西北太平洋的水供应量受太平洋中几种海洋-大气气候变化模式的影响。气候变化有可能改变这些关系，并影响以融雪为主的支流到哥伦比亚河的流量和流量时间。在这里，评估了加拿大哥伦比亚河流域气候变化和近期气候变暖对40条支流的流量和时间的历史影响。在水流和几个太平洋气候指数之间发现了区域关系，包括与太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）的已经建立的关系。但是，近几十年来，流量与气候指数之间的统计关系变得越来越弱，这对使用这些指数作为决策工具的管理者产生了影响。从1947年至1976年发生的PDO冷期平均年流量与1999年至2011年最近的冷期进行比较，表明该盆地加拿大部分下降了11％。除去这些气候指数对历史流量的影响，可以发现残留流量在1980年代某个时候开始减少。研究了温度升高对流量的潜在作用，并发现夏季月份流量减少和温度升高之间存在统计学上的显着关系，尤其是与18摄氏度以上的天数有关。结果表明，气候变化可能正在改变历史哥伦比亚盆地加拿大部分气候指数与流量之间的关系。

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  • 来源
    《Canadian Water Resources Journal》 |2017年第2期|179-192|共14页
  • 作者

    Brahney Janice; Weber Frank; Foord Vanessa; Janmaat John; Curtis Paul Jefferson;

  • 作者单位

    Univ British Columbia, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Kelowna, BC, Canada|Utah State Univ, Dept Watershed Sci, Logan, UT 84322 USA;

    BC Hydro & Power Author, Hydrol, Burnaby, BC, Canada;

    British Columbia Minist Forests Lands & Nat Resou, Prince George, BC, Canada;

    Univ British Columbia, Dept Econ, Kelowna, BC, Canada;

    Univ British Columbia, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Kelowna, BC, Canada;

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