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首页> 外文会议>Annual conference of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering 2011 >Potential Hydrologic Impact of Climatic Change to Regional Scale River Basins of Alberta and British Columbia
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Potential Hydrologic Impact of Climatic Change to Regional Scale River Basins of Alberta and British Columbia

机译：气候变化对艾伯塔省和不列颠哥伦比亚省区域尺度流域的潜在水文影响

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The potential climate change impact on the water resources of Athabasca River Basin (ARB) and South Saskatchewan River Basins (SSRB) of Alberta are investigated. The Modified Interaction Biosphere Atmosphere (MISBA) of Kerkhoven and Gan (2006) is used to simulate the future flows of ARB and SSRB under four IPCC SRES climate scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1, and B2) over three 30-year time periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2100).ln the ARB, mean annual flows are expected to decline as the shortened snowfall season and increased sublimation together lead to a decline in the spring snowpack. Although the wettest scenarios predict mild increases in annual runoff in the first half of the century, all GCMs and emission combinations predict large declines by the end of the 21st century with an average change in annual runoff, mean maximum annual flow and mean minimum annual flow of -21%, -4.4%, and -41%, respectively. For SSRB, albeit precipitation is projected to increase over the 21st century, most of the scenario runs show a decrease in the mean annual maximum streamflow for three of its sub-basins, the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River basins over the 21st century, except for a few cases. The runoff coefficients simulated by MISBA for almost all the climate scenarios for Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River basins show that for every 1 °C rise in temperature means an approximate 4% decrease in the runoff coefficient for the Oldman River basin, 7 % for the Bow and 8 % for the Red Deer River basins.
机译：研究了潜在的气候变化对艾伯塔省阿萨巴斯卡河流域（ARB）和南萨斯喀彻温河流域（SSRB）水资源的影响。 Kerkhoven和Gan（2006）的修改后的相互作用生物圈大气（MISBA）用于模拟四个IPCC SRES气候情景（A1FI，A2，B1和B2）在三个30年的时间段内ARB和SSRB的未来流量（ 2010-2039、2040-2069、2070-2100）。在ARB中，由于降雪季节的缩短和升华的增加共同导致春季积雪的减少，预计年平均流量将下降。尽管最潮湿的情景预测了本世纪上半叶的年径流量将略有增加，但所有GCM和排放组合都预测到21世纪末将出现较大的下降，年径流量的平均变化，平均最大年流量和平均最小年流量分别为-21％，-4.4％和-41％。就SSRB而言，尽管预计在21世纪降水会增加，但大多数情景情景显示，在21世纪，其三个子流域Oldman，Bow和Red Deer流域的年平均最大流量有所减少，除了少数情况。 MISBA模拟的奥尔德曼河，鲍德河和红鹿河流域几乎所有气候情景的径流系数表明，温度每升高1°C，奥尔德曼河流域的径流系数大约降低4％，而对于曼德河流域，则为7％。弓和红鹿河流域的8％。

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