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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Differences and sensitivities in potential hydrologic impact of climate change to regional-scale Athabasca and Fraser River basins of the leeward and windward sides of the Canadian Rocky Mountains respectively
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Differences and sensitivities in potential hydrologic impact of climate change to regional-scale Athabasca and Fraser River basins of the leeward and windward sides of the Canadian Rocky Mountains respectively

机译：气候变化对加拿大洛矶山脉背风侧和上风侧的区域规模的阿萨巴斯卡和弗雷泽河流域的潜在水文影响的差异和敏感性

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摘要

Sensitivities to the potential impact of Climate Change on the water resources of the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) and Fraser River Basin (FRB) were investigated. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC projected by seven general circulation models (GCM), namely, Japan’s CCSRNIES, Canada’s CGCM2, Australia’s CSIROMk2b, Germany’s ECHAM4, the USA’s GFDLR30, the UK’s HadCM3, and the USA’s NCARPCM, driven under four SRES climate scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1, and B2) over three 30-year time periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2100) were used in these studies. The change fields over these three 30-year time periods are assessed with respect to the 1961–1990, 30-year climate normal and based on the 1961–1990 European Community Mid-Weather Forecast (ECMWF) re-analysis data (ERA-40), which were adjusted with respect to the higher resolution GEM forecast archive of Environment Canada, and used to drive the Modified ISBA (MISBA) of Kerkhoven and Gan (Adv Water Resour 29(6):808–826, 2006). In the ARB, the shortened snowfall season and increased sublimation together lead to a decline in the spring snowpack, and mean annual flows are expected to decline with the runoff coefficient dropping by about 8% per °C rise in temperature. Although the wettest scenarios predict mild increases in annual runoff in the first half of the century, all GCM and emission combinations predict large declines by the end of the twenty-first century with an average change in the annual runoff, mean maximum annual flow and mean minimum annual flow of −21%, −4.4%, and −41%, respectively. The climate scenarios in the FRB present a less clear picture of streamflows in the twenty-first century. All 18 GCM projections suggest mean annual flows in the FRB should change by ±10% with eight projections suggesting increases and 10 projecting decreases in the mean annual flow. This stark contrast with the ARB results is due to the FRB’s much milder climate. Therefore under SRES scenarios, much of the FRB is projected to become warmer than 0°C for most of the calendar year, resulting in a decline in FRB’s characteristic snow fed annual hydrograph response, which also results in a large decline in the average maximum flow rate. Generalized equations relating mean annual runoff, mean annual minimum flows, and mean annual maximum flows to changes in rainfall, snowfall, winter temperature, and summer temperature show that flow rates in both basins are more sensitive to changes in winter than summer temperature.
机译：研究了对气候变化对阿萨巴斯卡河流域（ARB）和弗雷泽河流域（FRB）水资源潜在影响的敏感性。 IPCC的排放情景特别报告（SRES）由日本的CCSRNIES，加拿大的CGCM2，澳大利亚的CSIROMk2b，德国的ECHAM4，美国的GFDLR30，英国的HadCM3和美国的NCARPCM等七个通用循环模型（GCM）预测。在这些研究中，使用了三个30年时间段（2010-2039、2040-2069、2070-2100）中的四种SRES气候情景（A1FI，A2，B1和B2）。根据1961-1990年，30年气候正常值，并基于1961-1990年欧洲共同体中期天气预报（ECMWF）重新分析数据（ERA-40），评估了这三个30年时间段内的变化场），并根据加拿大环境部的较高分辨率GEM预测档案进行了调整，并用于推动Kerkhoven和Gan的Modified ISBA（MISBA）（Adv Water Resour 29（6）：808-826，2006年）。在ARB中，降雪季节的缩短和升华的增加共同导致春季积雪的减少，并且随着温度每升高1摄氏度，径流系数下降约8％，则预计年流量将下降。尽管最潮湿的情景预测了本世纪上半叶的年径流量将略有增加，但所有GCM和排放组合都预测到21世纪末将出现较大的下降，年径流量的平均变化，平均最大年流量和均值最小年流量分别为-21％，-4.4％和-41％。 FRB中的气候情景对二十一世纪的水流状况不太清楚。 GCM的所有18个预测都表明FRB中的年平均流量应变化±10％，其中8个预测表明年平均流量将增加而10个预测年流量将减少。与ARB结果的鲜明对比是因为FRB的气候温和得多。因此，在SRES情景下，大部分日历年的大部分FRB预计会变得比0°C温暖，从而导致FRB的典型积雪年度水文图响应下降，这也导致平均最大流量大幅度下降。率。关于降雨，降雪，冬季温度和夏季温度变化的年均径流量，年均最小流量和年均最大流量的广义方程式表明，与夏季温度相比，两个流域的流量对冬季的变化更为敏感。

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