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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >Differences in the potential hydrologic impact of climate change to the athabasca and fraser river basins of canad with and without considering shifts in vegetation patterns induced by climate change
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Differences in the potential hydrologic impact of climate change to the athabasca and fraser river basins of canad with and without considering shifts in vegetation patterns induced by climate change

机译：考虑和不考虑气候变化引起的植被格局变化的情况下，气候变化对加拿大阿萨巴斯卡河和弗雷泽河流域的潜在水文影响的差异

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The research objectives are to estimate differences between the potential impact of climatic change to the Athabasca River basin (ARB) and Fraser River basin (FRB) of Canada with and without considering shifts in vegetation patterns induced by climate change and how much the difference will depend on vegetation types and climate. The hydrologic effects of vegetation shifts on ARB and FRB were estimated by applying the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS) simulatedresults based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's First and Second Assessment Report general circulation model (GCM) scenarios to the modified Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (MISBA) scheme. According to MAPSS, vegetation shifts in mountainous regions of FRB are expected to be dominated by conifer/broadleaf competition, while in ARB, climate projections of MAPSS predicted a southern expansion of the boreal forest. Because of differences in sublimation, there is a tendency for more snow to accumulate in open grassland than forests. Furthermore, changes to simulated mean annual maximum snowpack, runoff, and basin area covered by grassland are positively correlated to each other. Generally, a 4% increase in snow water equivalent (SWE) results in a 1%increase in mean annual runoff. These relationships hold true in both basins over a wide range of GCM-projected climate conditions and vegetation responses, suggesting that most changes in mean annual flow can be attributed to changes in SWE. Because of the different modeling approaches between MAPSS and MISBA, it seems that the treatment of these processes in vegetation and hydrologic models should be similar before conclusions can be drawn from various stand-alone simulations. Ideally, a land surface scheme should be coupled with a vegetation model in future studies.
机译：研究目的是评估气候变化对加拿大的阿萨巴斯卡河流域（ARB）和菲沙河盆地（FRB）的潜在影响之间的差异，同时考虑和不考虑气候变化引起的植被格局变化以及该变化将取决于多少植被类型和气候。通过将基于政府间气候变化专门委员会第一和第二份评估报告的一般环流模型（GCM）情景的映射大气-植物-土壤系统（MAPSS）模拟结果应用于修正后的相互作用，估算了植被转移对ARB和FRB的水文影响土壤－生物圈－大气（MISBA）方案。据MAPSS估计，FRB山区的植被转移预计将由针叶树/阔叶树竞争主导，而在ARB中，MAPSS的气候预测预测了北方森林的南部扩张。由于升华的差异，在开阔的草地上积雪的趋势要比森林多。此外，草地覆盖的模拟平均年最大积雪，径流量和流域面积的变化之间存在正相关。通常，雪水当量（SWE）增加4％，平均年径流量增加1％。这些关系在GCM预估的广泛气候条件和植被响应范围内的两个盆地中都成立，这表明平均年流量的大部分变化都可归因于SWE的变化。由于MAPSS和MISBA之间的建模方法不同，因此在可以从各种独立的模拟得出结论之前，似乎在植被和水文模型中对这些过程的处理应该是相似的。理想情况下，在未来的研究中应将地表方案与植被模型结合起来。

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