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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Water Resources Journal >Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba
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Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

机译：基于树轮的萨斯喀彻温省，北达科他州和曼尼托巴省苏里斯河地区长期季节性降水的估计

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摘要

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November-February, March-June and July-October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.
机译：2011年，萨斯喀彻温省，北达科他州和曼尼托巴省的苏里斯河流域发生了史无前例的洪水，当时该流域处于长期潮湿状态。为了建立未来流量的模型，需要评估过去多年代际气候变率和/或可能的气候变化对降水的影响。在这项研究中，分析了苏里斯河流域周围四度缓冲区中的树木年轮年代和历史降水数据，以开发可用于预测降水长期变化的回归模型。为了着眼于长期变化，在研究区域的五个季节（11月至2月，3月至6月和7月至10月）的五个子区域（通过降水量的聚类分析确定）中模拟了12年移动平均降水。这些模型使用了来自加拿大和美国的树年轮系的多分辨率分解（使用离散小波变换的加法分解，基于两个幂的加法分解）和基​​于经校正和均质化的加拿大气候数据和美国历史气候学的12年季节性移动平均降水量网络数据。结果表明，降水量在16年，32年和64年的长期（数十年）时间尺度上变化。这些模型强调了过去广泛的干旱和干旱事件，这些事件可能随季节和次区域而有很大差异。结果表明，最近的湿润时期可能是很长一段时间内自然变化的一部分。

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  • 来源
    《Canadian Water Resources Journal》 |2016年第3期|412-428|共17页
  • 作者

    Ryberg Karen R.; Vecchia Aldo V.; Akyuez F. Adnan; Lin Wei;

  • 作者单位

    US Geol Survey, North Dakota Water Sci Ctr, Bismarck, ND USA|North Dakota State Univ, Environm & Conservat Sci Program, Fargo, ND USA;

    US Geol Survey, North Dakota Water Sci Ctr, Bismarck, ND USA;

    North Dakota State Univ, North Dakota State Climate Off, Fargo, ND USA;

    North Dakota State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Fargo, ND USA;

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