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A review of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) decade in Canada

机译：回顾加拿大的疏ga盆地（PUB）十年

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At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the focus of hydrological prediction had been on the development of empirical tools and simulation models that relied heavily on calibration. These predictive tools were disconnected from many hydrological science advances made since the International Hydrological Decade (IHD) of 1964-1974. The IHD period is now perceived as a time when both hydrological science and water resources prediction improved rapidly and in a coordinated manner. Unfortunately, several factors conspired against the success of the empirical prediction paradigm since the IHD - all due to the inability of empirical techniques to predict reliably outside of the situations used to develop them. The foremost of these was non-stationarity in climate, land use and water use, which caused hydrological systems to shift over time and sometimes changed the predominant water flow and energy processes governing the hydrological cycle (Burn and Hag Elnur 2002; Milly et al. 2008). Inadequate hydroclimatological observation networks (Shiklomanov et al. 2002; St-Hilaire et al. 2003) and notable gaps in, hydrological process understanding (Sivapalan et al. 2003) also increased uncertainty in hydrological prediction. It was becoming clear that uncertainty in predictive ability was decreasing the resilience of society to water-related needs, development and hazards. In Canada, for example, we were not particularly prepared to predict the 1996 Saguenay flood (Nagarajan and Yau 2006) nor drought conditions in the southern Prairies in the early 2000s (D.W. Phillips 2002; Stewart et al. 2011).
机译：在二十一世纪初，水文预测的重点一直放在经验工具和模拟模型的开发上，这些工具和模拟模型严重依赖于校准。自1964-1974年国际水文十年（IHD）以来，这些预测工具与许多水文科学进展脱节。现在，人们将IHD时期视为水文科学和水资源预测均以协调一致的方式迅速改善的时期。不幸的是，自IHD以来，有几个因素阻碍了经验预测范式的成功-所有这些都是由于经验技术无法在用来发展它们的情况之外可靠地进行预测。其中最主要的是气候，土地利用和用水的不稳定，这导致水文系统随时间推移而变化，有时会改变主导水文循环的主要水流和能量过程（Burn and Hag Elnur 2002; Milly等。 2008）。水文气候观测网络不足（Shiklomanov等，2002； St-Hilaire等，2003）以及水文过程理解上的明显差距（Sivapalan等，2003）也增加了水文预报的不确定性。越来越明显的是，预测能力的不确定性正在降低社会对与水有关的需求，发展和危害的适应力。例如，在加拿大，我们并没有特别准备预测1996年的Saguenay洪水（Nagarajan和Yau，2006年），也没有预测2000年代初南部大草原地区的干旱情况（D.W. Phillips，2002年； Stewart等，2011年）。

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  • 来源
    《Canadian Water Resources Journal》 |2013年第4期|253-262|共10页
  • 作者

    C. Spence; P.H. Whitfield; J.W. Pomeroy; A. Pietroniro; D.H. Burn; D.L. Peters; A. St-Hilaire;

  • 作者单位

    Environment Canada, Saskatoon, SK, Canada;

    Center for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada;

    Center for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada;

    Environment Canada, Saskatoon, SK, Canada;

    University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada;

    Environment Canada, Victoria, EC, Canada;

    Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Quebec City, QC, Canada;

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