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首页> 外文期刊>Water News A propos de l'eau >Development of an ice jam database and prediction tool for the Lower Red River
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Development of an ice jam database and prediction tool for the Lower Red River

机译：下红河冰盖数据库和预测工具的开发

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The Lower Red River in Manitoba regularly experiences springtime ice jam flooding, with the most severe events occurring between Lockport and Netley Lake. A database of ice jam events was developed through newspaper archives and historical stage data. Each event was given a severity rating from 1-5, based on the resulting ice jam flood. This facilitated an investigation of ice jam timing and frequency on this section of the Lower Red River and the development of a threshold-based ice jam prediction tool. Out of 54 ice jam events from 1962-2017, all ice jam events occurred when the peak spring flow exceeded 1000 cms and all severe events (severity 3+) occurred when peak spring flows exceeded 1500 cms. The threshold ice jam prediction model was developed using five meteorological and hydrometric parameters including accumulated degree day of thaw, accumulated degree day of freezing, freeze-up water level, snow on ground, and rain equivalence. The model was able to differentiate all severe event years from non-event years with only one false positive result. By gaining a better understanding of ice jamming in the area, this research provides an accessible prediction method that can help guide decisions related to the risk and severity of spring ice jamming.
机译：Manitoba的下红河经常经历春天冰砖洪水，洛克波特和荷兰湖之间发生的最严重的事件。通过报纸档案和历史阶段数据开发了一个冰堵塞事件数据库。根据由此产生的冰砖洪水，每个事件从1-5获得严重程度。这促进了对下红河下河的这一部分的冰锁时序和频率的调查以及基于阈值的冰锁预测工具的开发。从1962 - 2017年开始的54个冰盖事件中，当峰值弹簧流量超过1500个CMS时，所有冰弹簧流量超过1000个CMS和所有严重事件（严重程度3 +）时发生。使用五个气象和水管参数开发了阈值冰堵塞预测模型，包括累积的冻融度，冻结度，冻结水位，地面溢水，雨水等雨量。该模型能够在非事件年份中区分所有严重的事件年，只有一个误阳性结果。通过在该地区更好地了解冰干扰，本研究提供了一种可访问的预测方法，可以帮助指导与春天冰堵塞的风险和严重程度相关的决策。

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