The international spillover of china's monetary policy: a case study of a developing country

Ahmad Jafari Samimi; Seyed Peyman Asadi; Zahra Sheidaei

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The international spillover of china's monetary policy: a case study of a developing country

机译：中国货币政策的国际溢出：一个发展中国家的案例研究

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摘要

This paper aimed to investigate the evidence on the transmission of China's monetary policy shocks to macroeconomic variables in Iran. Since 1990, China has become one of the main trading partners of Iran; therefore, it is expected that China's macroeconomic shocks have some consequences on Iran's Economy. In this study, a structural vector autoregressive model is used to explore such a transmission. The findings of the study reveal that the China's monetary policy changes significantly affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as Iran's CPI meaningfully increases with the expansion of China's money supply. Furthermore, it was found that Iran's other economic variables, including the real GDP, real effective exchange rate, and interest rate, do not significantly reflect the China's monetary shocks; even though confirm the expected sign and direction.

机译：本文旨在调查有关中国货币政策冲击向伊朗宏观经济变量传递的证据。自1990年以来，中国已成为伊朗的主要贸易伙伴之一。因此，预计中国的宏观经济冲击将对伊朗的经济产生一定的影响。在这项研究中，结构矢量自回归模型用于探索这种传播。该研究的结果表明，随着伊朗的CPI随着中国货币供应量的增加而有意义地增加，中国的货币政策变化将显着影响消费者物价指数（CPI）。此外，还发现伊朗的其他经济变量，包括实际GDP，实际有效汇率和利率，并未显着反映中国的货币冲击。即使确认预期的标志和方向。

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来源
《China Economic Journal》 |2019年第1期|52-67|共16页
作者
Ahmad Jafari Samimi; Seyed Peyman Asadi; Zahra Sheidaei;
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作者单位

Professor of economics University of Mazandaran Babolsar Iran;

PhD candidate of economics University of Mazandaran Babolsar Iran;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Monetary policy; external shocks; Structural Vector Autoregressive; trade pattern; spillover;

机译：货币政策;外部冲击;结构向量自回归;贸易模式;外溢;

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机译：在发达国家的非常规货币政策下，国际资金涌入亚洲股票市场
3. International spillovers into Asian stock markets under the unconventional monetary policies of advanced countries [J] . Sugimoto Kimiko, Matsuki Takashi Journal of the Japanese and International Economies . 2019,第Juna期

机译：国际溢出到亚洲股市下的高等国家的非传统货币政策
4. An International Comparative Study on China's Monetary Policy -An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data in Asian Countries [C] . GUO Huiying International institute of statistics and management engineering symposium . 2010

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5. International Monetary Policy Transmission, Macroprudential Regulation, and the Real Economies of Developed and Developing Countries [D] . Kronick, Jeremy M. 2015

机译：国际货币政策传导，宏观审慎监管以及发达国家和发展中国家的实际经济
6. The role of the skill-trained volunteer in international public health: Peace Corps health programming and health policy in developing countries. [O] . M E King 1981

机译：受过技能训练的志愿者在国际公共卫生中的作用：和平队的卫生规划和发展中国家的卫生政策。
7. Financial Development and the Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Do the distributional consequences of monetary policy depend on the extent of financial development? Should optimal monetary policy vary across countries? In order to answer these questions, we develop a monetary growth production model with heterogeneous agents. In our economy, optimal policy needs to weigh the effects of policy across two groups — capital owners and individuals who hold liquid assets. While banks help limit the exposure to inflation, there are limits because money alleviates the frictions of private information and limited communication. In this environment, we compare two economies that are identical in every aspect except for their level of financial development. In a country with limited financial development, a stock market is absent. In the other, an equity market is active. In either economy, inflation adversely affects capital formation and output. Individuals who hold liquid assets are always adversely affected by inflation, but the attitude of capital owners depends on the level of financial development. In particular, in the presence of a stock market, the impact of inflation on the welfare of capital owners is non-monotonic. Nevertheless, optimal monetary policy is always more conservative at higher levels of financial development. [O] . TINA M. Edgar A. Ghossoub, TINA M. Robert R. Reedy 100

机译：金融发展和货币政策的分配效应货币政策的分配后果是否取决于金融发展的程度？各国的最优货币政策应该不同吗？为了回答这些问题，我们开发了一个具有异构代理的货币增长生产模型。在我们的经济中，最优政策需要权衡两个群体的政策效应 - 资本所有者和持有流动资产的个人。虽然银行帮助限制通胀风险，但存在限制，因为资金减轻了私人信息的摩擦和有限的沟通。在这种环境下，我们比较两个经济体在各个方面都是相同的，除了它们的金融发展水平。在金融发展有限的国家，缺乏股票市场。另一方面，股票市场活跃。在任一经济体中，通胀都会对资本形成和产出产生不利影响持有流动资产的个人总是受到通货膨胀的不利影响，但资本所有者的态度取决于金融发展的水平。特别是，在股票市场存在的情况下，通货膨胀对资本所有者福利的影响是非单调的。尽管如此，在较高的金融发展水平下，最优货币政策总是更加保守。
8. Monetary Policy Instruments for Developing Countries: A World Bank Symposium [R] . Caprio, G., Honohan, P. 1991

机译：发展中国家货币政策工具：世界银行研讨会

The international spillover of china's monetary policy: a case study of a developing country

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