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Assessing Local Government Debt Risks in China: A Case Study of Local Government Financial Vehicles

机译：中国地方政府债务风险评估：以地方政府金融工具为例

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摘要

Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles (LGFV) into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks ' asset quality and, more broadly, China's medium-term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique firm-level dataset to evaluate the country's local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis (PCA) along with multivariate discriminate analysis (MDA) to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments 'fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle-western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.
机译：在最近的全球金融危机之后，中国强劲的信贷扩张使地方政府金融工具（LGFV）成为人们关注的焦点。 LGFV的快速增长引发了人们对地方政府债务，银行资产质量以及更广泛的中国中期金融稳定和主权风险的担忧。本文构建了一个独特的公司级数据集来评估该国的地方政府债务。我们发现LGFV分布不均，主要集中在沿海地区，并且从2010年到2012年其偿债能力下降。我们使用主成分分析（PCA）和多变量判别分析（MDA）来识别信贷风险基于常规财务变量以及地方政府的财政状况的地方政府融资工具的评估。我们还估计了省政府层面债务的安全界限。这些估计表明，中西部省份的地方政府债务风险更加严重，而在市和县一级与地方政府融资平台相关的风险更高。尽管在中国不太可能发生国债危机，但应当注意到地方政府融资平台的高风险，并应通过提高地方政府的财政透明度和改革财政制度来有效控制。

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