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Territorial Control, Levels of Violence, and the Electoral Performance of Former Rebel Political Parties After Civil Wars

机译：内战后前叛乱政党的领土控制，暴力程度和选举表现

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摘要

This paper explores debates about electoral patterns in post-civil war societies. In particular, we examine whether the ability of rebels to capture and control territory and the level of violence at the local level explains the electoral performance of former rebel political parties, focusing on the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikstan (IRPT) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) (CPN (M)). Using data from the 2000 legislative election in Tajikistan and the 2008 Nepalese Constituent Assembly election, this paper finds that rebel control over districts did explain rebel party's electoral performance in Nepal. However, rebel control of districts in Tajikistan during the civil war did not predict the electoral performance in the first post-conflict election in that country. This is largely due to the disconnect between the IRPT and the constituencies that had supported it during the civil war, and because the level of control that the party exerted was far less than that of the CPN (M).
机译：本文探讨了内战后社会中有关选举模式的争论。特别是，我们检查了叛乱分子占领和控制领土的能力以及地方一级的暴力程度是否能解释前叛乱政党的选举表现，重点是塔吉克斯坦伊斯兰复兴党（IRPT）和哈萨克斯坦共产党尼泊尔（毛主义）（CPN（M））。本文使用塔吉克斯坦2000年立法选举和2008年尼泊尔制宪议会选举的数据，发现叛乱分子对地区的控制确实可以解释叛乱党在尼泊尔的选举表现。但是，内战期间叛军对塔吉克斯坦各区的控制并不能预测该国在冲突后的第一次选举中的选举表现。这主要是由于内战期间IRPT与支持IRPT的选民之间的脱节，并且由于该党施加的控制水平远低于CPN（M）。

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  • 来源
    《Civil wars》 |2013年第4期|531-550|共20页
  • 作者

    JOHN ISHIYAMA; MICHAEL WIDMEIER;

  • 作者单位

    University of North Texas,in Denton Texas;

    University of North Texas in Denton, Texas;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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